In his monthly analysis of the economic context, Soul sgr stressed that the panorama of the markets remains characterized by one “Strong uncertainty” and from one “Poor visibility” On what will happen in the future. In this context – the experts underline – it becomes “essential to allow themselves the benefit of doubt”, such as the image of “Thieighter” of Rodin“Which stops to reflect before acting”. For this soul, it recommends “a neutral approach on the main asset class, avoid to adopt rigid positions which reflect strong beliefs “.
USA, Eurozone and China
“Growth in United States shows signs of slowdown, but, as reflected by the probability taken from the market surveys, we have Revised the probability of recessionthanks to the resilient macroeconomic data, the high liquidity and the attention of commercial tensions “
underlines Soul Sgr. In Euro areathe prospective of growth remain mostly unchangeddespite the weakening caused by commercial tensions. In Chinagrowth has slowed down for the increase in rates, partially compensated for tax stimuli; In a second moment, however, the estimates for 2025 were raised From 4.2% to 4.7% thanks to the relaxation with the USA.
The prospects for inflation cores in USA are reduced magazines (3.0% vs 3.2% compared to the previous month), while in theEuro areadespite the peak of April linked to the service member, continues the Disinflation trend and a return to the target is expected by the end of 2025. In China persist the tendencies deflationary which brake consumer prices.
“We expect two rates cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) during 2025; the European Central Bank (ECB), after cutting the June rates, should implement two other interventions, while from the Popolare Chinese Bank (PBOC) we expect a single cut of 20 basic points”
experts say.
Focus on bonds
The judgment of soul SGR on On the Treasury US remains neutral.
“In a context characterized by high uncertainty, we have also aligned with neutrality the positioning on European government bondsi, on which we still keep a more constructive bias Compared to the US ones, since they have lower risks both in terms of possible increase in inflation and the dynamics of the deficit, they offer attractive assessments and benefit from the greater predictability and credibility of policymkers “,
explains the SGR, adding that
“The View on the BTPs has long been aligned with that on German government: The spread remained exceptionally resilient in during the recent wave of volatility, thanks to an upgrade of the rating that seals a path of attention to the tax discipline and the opportunities offered by the PNRR, and the assessments remain interesting compared to the fundamentals “.
The Italian picture
“During the month we took the significant rise in the Italian market To create part of the profits and maintain a prudent approach “
He underlines Soul Sgr, adding that the duties introduced have proved to be more aggressive than expected and, in perspective, attention could be shift to commercial negotiations.
“However, it is difficult to hypothesize a return to the pre-2025 conditions. In terms of sectors, we remain overweight on financial, luxury and communication services; The underweight of industrialists, undue companies and companies more exposed to duties, remains underweight “,
The experts of the Italian Sgr say.
