Positive week for most global stock markets, including the Paris Stock Exchangedespite the vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier by the French Parliament on Wednesday evening, which worsened the political crisis of the large Eurozone economy. The CAC 40 closed the eighth with a rise of more than 3%while the OAT-Bund spread (i.e. between French and German ten-year government bonds) settled at 77 basis points. Last week, the gap between OAT and Bund had reached 90 basis points, the highest level since 2012, and French spreads are well above Spanish ones (10-year at 2.75%) and almost on par with those of Greece.
Meanwhile, the focus is shifting to the start of the last round of central bank meetings, starting from ECB Thursday December 12th: a 25 basis point cut in interest rates is expected, with the focus being on updating macro estimates and any changes in guidance. According to investors, a 25 basis point cut is practically expected next December 18th also for the Fedwith the latest macro data strengthening this forecast.
The macroeconomic framework
The report on US labor market Of November provided interesting indications: new non-agricultural workers were 227 thousand (against 202 thousand expected), with upward revisions of both the October figure (36 thousand from the preliminary 12 thousand) and that of September (255 thousand from the preliminary 223 thousand ), while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% against a minimally changed participation rate (62.5%), according to what was communicated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In Eurozoneinstead, the final reading of the 3rd quarter GDP confirmed growth of +0.4% q/q (+0.9% y/y). The breakdown highlighted a negative contribution from foreign trade), an increase in investments (+2% q/q) and, finally, a strengthening of consumption which recorded an increase of +0.7% q/q (the highest of the last 2 years): the rise in real incomes, due to the rise in salaries and the decline in inflation, has therefore been translated into greater spending by families, who have also benefited from falling interest rates, have Intesa analysts pointed out Sanpaolo.
Today’s session
Among the major Eurozone indices, today was a slow day for Frankfurtwhich shows a +0.13%, sluggish for Londonwhich marks a decline of 0.49%, and good for Pariswhich advances by 1.31%.
Slight increase for the Milan Stock Exchange, which shows on FTSE MIB an increase of 0.36%, consolidating the series of seven consecutive increases, started on the 28th of last month; along the same lines, little leap forward for the FTSE Italia All-Sharewhich reaches 36,958 points. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap (+0.24%) is just above parity; as well as fractional gains for the FTSE Italia Star (+0.5%).
In Piazza Affari the countervalue trade in the last session was equal to 2.88 billion euros, down by 9.50%, compared to 3.19 billion on the day before; as regards volumes, these stood at 0.56 billion shares, compared to the previous 0.64 billion.
Among them best Blue Chips of Piazza Affari, Moncler revved up (+4.96%, after the promotion of Goldman Sachs). Stellantis moves in positive territory, showing an increase of 3.19%. Money on Campari, which recorded an increase of 2.69%. Definitely positive results for Fineco, which boasts growth of 2.25%. The worst performances, however, were recorded on Tenaris, which closed at -2.96%. BPER is in the red, showing a sharp decline of 2.84%. Saipem’s negative performance stands out, falling by 2.05%. Small loss for Unipol, which trades at -1.34%.
The headlines of the week
Among the best titles of the week on Piazza Affari is Campariafter the company announced spirits industry veteran Simon Hunt as its new CEO. Simon Hunt will take over from current interim co-CEOs Paolo Marchesini, Chief financial and operating officer, and Fabio Di Fede, Chief legal and M&A officer. Former CEO of William Grant & Sons, with over 30 years of experience in the international spirits industry, particularly in the strategic US market, Hunt has extensive and proven experience in managing premium spirits businesses and developing and growing brands iconic globally.
Excellent octave too Finecowhich announced that it closed the month of November with a net collection of 941 million euros (+228% from 287 million euros a year ago), reaching 8.9 billion from the beginning of the year and thus exceeding the figure of entire 2023. The bank also recorded its second best result ever in November for the number of new customers (14,574) after last month’s record.
Bank purchases continued, with the focus on consolidating the sector. The CEO of UniCredit Andrea Orcel said he has until March to evaluate the opportunity to improve the conditions of the OPS on BPM desk. Meanwhile, analysts at Jefferies said they expect Italian banks’ net interest income to decline in 2025, but other factors such as growth in fee income will almost offset any negatives.
Bad instead ERGwith FTSE Russell also announcing that Buzzi will replace it in the FTSE MIB, the main benchmark index of the Italian stock markets; the change will become effective after the close of trading on Friday 20 December 2024 (i.e. from Monday 23 December 2024).
