There Bank of Italy He revised down the GDP growth predictions, mainly due to the intensity of commercial policies. For 2025, the estimated growth in December was equal to +0.8%, but has now been correct to +0.6%. It is one of the first repercussions of the duties introduced by the US president Donald Trump on European products.
The forecasts for the following years have also been cut:
- For 2026 the estimate drops from +1.1% to +0.8%;
- For 2027 he goes from +0.9% to +0.7%.
Bankitalia: “Projections on GDP subject to high uncertainty”
You read it in Macroeconomic projections for Italy in the three -year period 2025/2027where it is specified that the projections are based on Desstagitialized and correct data for the number of working days. In the absence of these adjustments, the GDP would grow:
- 0.5% in 2025;
- 0.9% in 2026;
- 0.7% in 2027.
Widespread estimates, the institute points out, represent only a first and partial evaluation of the impact of the duties and do not include any countermeasures or future evolutions of the international context. Bankitalia underlines that:
The projections are subject to high uncertainty, connected above all with the evolution of the international context. Exports and investments could be affected to a greater extent than the expected of the invitation of commercial policies and its reflections on the trust of companies.
Marked negative effects could derive from a further increase in uncertainty on commercial policies, from any Returning measures and from prolonged tensions on financial markets. Exports and investments could be affected to a greater extent than the expected of the invitation of commercial policies and its reflections on the trust of companies.
On the other hand, positive effects may occur following a more expansive orientation of budgetary policy at European level, also in connection with the advertisements for the increase in defense expenses.
Unc: “No inflation risk from Trump’s duties but from the EU”
According to the Bank of Italy, therefore, the duties could generate inflationary pressures in the short term, especially in the case of a symmetrical response by the European Union. However, the eventual weakening of internal demand could have a opposite effect, intended to prevail in the final part of the three -year period considered in the forecasts.
A question that also confirm consumer associations. As Massimiliano Dona, president of theNational Consumer Union:
Bankitalia confirms that the risk of inflation in Italy certainly does not depend on Trump’s duties – which will instead damage American consumers, forced to buy Italian products at increased prices – but rather by the retaliable duties that the European Union will impose on the US imports, even if the drop in the question that at the end will generate this absurd commercial war started by Trump could prevail in the long run, containing the drop in GDP and employment.
The products that will see the greatest increases
Launches a similar alarm also the Codaconswhich speaks of the possible effects on inflation deriving from the against EU duties towards Made in the US products:
The value of imports from the USA in Italy risen to 2024 to 25.9 billion euros, with a growth of +2.6% on year. Leaving aside the industry sector, any duties imposed by Europe on imports from the USA would cause increases in retail prices for consumer goods such as lipsticks, powers and numerous cosmetics produced in the United States and widely used in Italy.
It will not only be the beauty sector, however, to be affected by the European plan against the commercial war:
It will be more expensive drinking orange juice, eating rice and smoking tobacco products, and there will also be various snacks and sweets, omnipresent on the shelves of Italian supermarkets.
It will also be the clothing sector to suffer, with increases for jeans, T -shirts, shoes and underwear. Numerous alcohol will also undergo increases in the price lists and prohibitive will be the purchase of a new car, especially if produced in the USA.
