There has been talk several times in recent weeks about a possible agreement with the banks, and little by little, from what initially seemed almost a fantasy, it is an increasingly tangible idea that is taking shape.
It all stems from the fact that there is still no money to close the 2026 budget. The Government is looking for around 4.5 billion and is asking the banks for it. As? Not with a new tax on extra profits, too risky on a political level (Forza Italia is already on a war footing, hands off the banks), but with an agreement made on the table.
The proposal is this: banks can release part of the reserves set aside in 2023 and pay them to the State, paying a reduced tax (around 26%). In exchange, no extra taxes and the possibility of saying that it is a voluntary contribution.
Technically it’s not a stretch, but it’s not entirely optional at this point either. Without that money, coverage for Irpef, healthcare and families does not hold up.
A maneuver still open and the issue of coverage
The measures envisaged in the Budget Law remain linked to a variable that weighs more than the others: the contribution of the banks. It is from there that the Government expects to obtain around 4.5 billion, but the agreement is not yet defined.
The ABI executive committee examined the technical proposals developed by the Mef. The scheme, for now, moves along two directions:
- reduction of the rate on the tax on extra profits, from 40% to 26%;
- taxation of dividends distributed to shareholders, again at a rate of 26%.
The combination should bring about 2.8 billion:
- 1.6 from the reserves set aside in 2023;
- 1.2 from dividends.
To complete the package, there would be 1.3 billion deriving from the postponement of deductions on deferred tax assets, a measure already agreed a year ago. This means that the state collects the money immediately but asks the banks to postpone the use of their tax credits. The entire operation would allow the State to collect without forcing and the credit institutions to remain within the margins.
The general secretary of Fabi, Lando Sileoni, recalled that the sector has never given up on requests of a solidarity nature. The rest will depend on how the negotiation progresses. For now, nothing has been decided yet.
The negotiations on the banks’ extraordinary contribution have been going on for weeks, without a clear direction. The Government is looking for at least 4.5 billion, as we have mentioned, but is unable to find a formula that combines cash needs and maintaining the relationship with the banks. From here a long, uncertain negotiation begins, which reflects a broader difficulty: building a stable economic policy, without relying on occasional measures or one-off requests.
On Monday evening, the ABI executive committee confirmed its willingness to continue with multi-year payments to the state budget, on the model of the 2024 agreement.
The position of the majority parties
A position that finds support in Forza Italia, historically opposed to levies on the banking sector. The party reiterated that it will not vote for any law that would propose a tax on extra profits. Rather, it insists on negotiated agreements, protected by institutional consensus.
The distance between allies, however, remains. The League is aiming for a larger contribution, at least 5 billion. The banks, for their part, do not reveal their cards: they only confirm their willingness to maintain the scheme already seen, without going overboard on the figures.
On a technical level, the Mef is working on a solution that makes the payment mandatory, without presenting it as a tax. Forza Italia and the liberal area are slowing down. It is not only the political line that matters, but also the direct influence of entities such as Mediolanum, close to the party. In short, as Giorgetti reiterated, the maneuver is still “open”, in the sense that everything now depends on the banks.
