European stock markets closed mostly weak in the first week of June, in a climate of growing anticipation for the next central bank meetings, starting with the ECB in the next eighth, followed by the FED in mid-June. In the background, geopolitical issues remain monitored, awaiting news on a possible US-Iran agreement.
Macroeconomic issues are always in focus and investors are weighing the downward revision of Eurozone GDP in the 1st quarter of 2026. According to the European Statistics Office EUROSTAT, GDP fell by 0.2% q/q, lower than the +0.1% of the second reading and the consensus. In the previous quarter, however, a +0.2% was recorded. On the year there was an increase of 0.3%, compared to +0.8% of the preliminary estimate and analysts’ expectations. The figure compares with +1.2% in the previous quarter.
Focus also on the US economy which recorded another month of strong employment growth in May: according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-agricultural employment increased by 172,000 units last month, after an upwardly revised increase of 179,000 units in April, while the consensus was for an increase of 85,000 jobs.
A momentum that reinforces expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
The strength of the labor market fuels the belief that the US economy continues to show greater resilience than other advanced economies, despite geopolitical tensions and persistent inflationary risks linked to energy prices.
Insiders are now fully anticipating an increase in interest rates of 25 basis points by the end of 2026, marking a clear change in scenario compared to previous months, when expectations of cuts in the cost of money prevailed. For the June 16-17 meeting, the market still expects the Fed to keep interest rates stable at 3.5%-3.75%.
The main indices
In the European stock market scenario, a sharp decline on Friday for Frankfurt, which marked -0.75%, London was stable, reporting a moderate +0.07%, and Paris wavered, with a modest decline of 0.32%.
The Milanese price list is aligned with Europe, with the FTSE MIB leaving 0.56% on the ground; along the same lines, the FTSE Italia All-Share yields to sales, closing at 52,535 points. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap fell (-0.87%); as well as the FTSE Italia Star in the red (-1.09%).
The headlines on Piazza Affari
Among the best Blue Chips on Piazza Affari, positive performance for Inwit, which advances by a discreet +3.31%. Italgas is well bought, marking a strong increase of 3.09%. Hera advances by 2.08%, Campari is also in positive territory (+1.96%). The strongest declines, however, occurred on STMicroelectronics, which closed the session at -5.87%. Prysmian (-3.49%) and Stellantis (-3.19%) are also under pressure. Slow day for Unicredit (-1.38%).
At the top among Italian mid-cap stocks, ERG (+5.93%), D’Amico (+3.08%), IREN (+2.70%) and CIR (+2.04%). The strongest sales, however, hit LU-VE Group, which ended trading at -5.35%. Letter also on Technoprobe (-4.34%), Carel Industries (-4.25%) and Technogym (-3.08%).
What to expect from the ECB
The next meeting of the European Central Bank is upon us, scheduled for Thursday 11 June, in a context still affected by the conflict in the Middle East and by energy prices which have a cascading effect on other prices.
Due to the downward revision of the Eurozone’s GDP, the latest inflation data showed an increase in prices rising to 3.2% from 1.9% in the first three months of the conflict and the outlook indicates new increases due to the increase in energy costs.
Industry forecasts favor an increase in interest rates at next week’s meeting. This is what emerges from a Bloomberg survey conducted among some economists between May 29 and June 3, in which only one did not express his opinion in favor of a monetary restriction move.
Additionally, most see a second hike later this year, with the deposit rate rising to 2.50%. The best month would be September, corresponding to the publication of the new macroeconomic projections by central economists.
