Positive week for the main European stock exchanges, with investors continuing to entertain the hypothesis that the European Central Bank will take action decisively to support the economy. A scenario however “cold” by the member of the Executive Committee of the central institute, Isabel Schnabelwho called for caution regarding the monetary policy to be pursued. Also Philip Lanechief economist of the ECB, said that the tightening of rates must not last too long, otherwise there will be an excessive impact on GDP and inflation. For the governor of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhauthere is every reason for an ECB rate cut in December.
Inflation in Europe below expectations does not heat up the stock markets
And it is precisely inflation that is back in focus this week, having grown again in November. The flash estimate onEurozone recorded a further increase in prices to +2.3%, against a consensus of +2.4%, while in October it was at +2% and in September at +1.7%. The data does not appear to change the prospects of a further cut by the ECB. Meanwhile, in Italy industrial turnover fell, while that of services increased. There Germany announced a decline in retail sales, while, on the employment front, the unemployment rate remained stable at 6.1%. As for German inflation, it confirmed lower than expected in November. In France GDP grew in the third quarter, driven by spending on services influenced by the sale of tickets for the Olympics. Furthermore, in November, inflation increased to 1.3% but remained below analysts’ expectations.
Bitcoin still on the rise and dollar in focus
Bitcoin continues its unstoppable march after last week it continued to set new historic highs, just below the $100,000 threshold, never touched before. According to insiders, the peak of cryptocurrencyexpected to rise, is expected to occur in late 2025 or early 2026.
Meanwhile the rally of dollar slowed significantly last week, despite the euro’s temporary dip below the 1.04 level, due to November’s dismal PMI numbers. Attention remains on the US currency in the wake of Trump’s appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, a well-known “fiscal hawk” who has criticized Fed policy as too lenient and calls into question the path of US inflation . In Asia, it yen has resumed its run on the bet of an intervention by the Bank of Japan.
Among commodities, prices are recovering petroliumafter OPEC+ decided to postpone the meeting, scheduled for Sunday 1 December, to Thursday 5 December, to decide on the new production policy and find an agreement on the possible postponement of increases in production quotas. OPEC+ said it had postponed the meeting to avoid conflicts with another event, the 45th Gulf States summit, which will be held on December 1 in Kuwait. OPEC+ sources, meanwhile, have confirmed that next week a further postponement of production increases for the month of January will be discussed again.
The slow growth in oil prices continues‘gold. Demand for safe haven assets remains strong given fears relating to the trade policies that the new Trump administration could implement. The president-elect has once again threatened new tariffs on goods imported from China as well as from Mexico and Canada. The gains, however, remain held back by the resilience of the US dollar – reinforced by Trump’s statements – and by the slowdown in demand after the signs of détente coming from the Middle East.
The weekly performance of the stock markets
The crown of increases this week was won by the Frankfurt stock exchange which closed with a +2.51%. London follows, taking home a gain of 1.69%. The rise, however, was fractional in Madrid +0.25%, Milan +0.36% and Paris +0.30%. The latter was affected by uncertainty over the Government, put to the test by the approval of the 2025 budget: the spread between French government bonds (OAT) and German Bunds also rose to its highest level since August 2012, at 90 points. The finale is preparing to rise, also for Wall Street: the American stock market remained closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and, on Friday, was only open for half a day. There is great anticipation for the data on purchases made for Black Friday, which anticipate consumption in the final part of the year.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
Among the best and worst of the week, banks are still in focus, with UniCredit And BPM protagonists, but at two speeds. The stock of Piazza Gae Aulenti, which leaves over 6 percentage points on the ground, has launched a takeover bid on the shares of Piazza Meda which jump by 7.04%. Outside the banking sector, it does well Brunello Cucinelli which advances by 6.47%, while on the downside, it slips Buzzi (-3.7%).
