In a global context ancora marked by commercial tensions and currency volatility, the China CHigh to expand their growth advantage over the United States. As Giacomo Calef, Country Head Italy of NS Partners explaining that understanding macroeconomic data It is essential to interpret market prospects: In the second quarter, Beijing recorded a 5.2% GDP growth on an annual basis, compared to 2.6% estimated by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta for the American economy. However, for the USA, the Bloomberg Consensus provides a slowdown at 1.5% in 2026. On the price front, the Chinese GDP defense – indicator that reflects the average variation of prices on all goods and services produced – has fallen by 1.2%, highlighting deflationary pressures. To stimulate internal consumption and counteract the effects of duties, the government has Roomed a program to replace obsolete goods, including products such as appliances and smartphones, and increasing the contribution of up to 500 yuan per article.
Share: China, is it time for a cautious entrance?
Also, it has launched emissions of ultra-long government bonds intended to finance green infrastructures and passenger transport, for a total of 81 billion yuan. This package is accompanied by possible cuts in rates in the second half of the year: the performance of the Chinese tenth anniversary, stopped at 1.66%, leaves room for targeted monetary maneuvers, also by virtue of a relatively content debt/GDP ratio (67.5%).
In United States, On the contrary, the adoption of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” could bring public debt from current 100% up to 124% by 2034 (129% in case of permanent measures). With 4.5% policy rates, the Federal Reserve still has intervention margins, but inflation at 2.7% and the high debt pose doubts about the effectiveness of further cuts in supporting mortgages and investments, in case of marked slowdown.
The View of our partners
In this scenario, the assessments of the Chinese shareholder – now significantly lower than the US ones – “They can represent an opportunity. TUttavia, the growing divergence between real economy and the performance of the indexes requires a highly selective approach. Since 2021 we have adopted a strategy focused on China that combines long exposures in the structurally more promising sectors-such as technology, domestic consumption and clean energy-with short positions on fragile areas of the market, to contain volatility and intercept discontinuity ” about 8% In dollars between 2021 and 31 May 2025, against a drop of over 30% of the Chinese indexes in the same period, “explains the expert.
Caution of the password
We believe that, even today, an exposure to China should be carefully calibrated: Not necessarily renounced, but entrusted to active and adaptive strategies, capable of reading the macro and micro signals, and of moving with caution within a complex context but full of misalignments to be enhanced.
