TIM remains in the spotlight in the FTSE MIB basket with a rise of 1.75% on the stock marketon the rumors relating to a possible exit of Vivendi from the capital and a entry of some private equity funds. A confirmation of the attractiveness of TIM after the unbundling of the network and the focus on higher value-added services (Brazil, Consumer and Enterprise) and a first step towards a possible reorganization of the Group born from the spin-off of the infrastructure.
The hypotheses in the field
According to a hypothesis put forward by Bloomberg, the CVC Capital Partners fund would be interested in take over the 24% share held by Vivendi, who had previously expressed the desire to exit the capital, considering the stake in TIM to be mostly financial. Negotiations with the French for the acquisition of the share, valued at approximately 1 billionthey would still be at the preliminary stagee, but CVC would also be ready to promote a takeover bid if a “business break-up” were to proceed. On the other hand, the Fund has never hidden its interest in TIM’s Enterprise division and, in 2022, it had also made a binding offer, promptly rejected by TIM, then struggling with the network spin-off project .
Meanwhile, they would be other contenders came out into the open. According to Il Messaggero, the fund would also be interested in purchasing a stake Bain Capitalwhile Il Sole 24 Ore mentions the name of Apax Partners.
Beyond the best offer, the operation must also receive the green light from the Italian Governmentwhich holds a stake in TIM, through CDP and which can exercise the Golden Power to block operations not considered strategic for the country.
The judgment of the experts
According to analysts at Akros Bank“Vivendi’s interest in selling its share is online with the wide ones restructuring efforts recently completed and effective as of yesterday, which they have seen Vivendi divide into four distinct entities” (pay TV, publishing, media and the old holding company). The operation should not result in a public offering of purchase of CVC on TIM, underlines Akros bank, according to which every potential buyer will wait the definition of litigation on the 1998 concession tax to advance an offer hypothesis and also the definition of the earnout deriving from a pPotential merger between Fibercop and Open Fiber.
Second Equitythe “most likely scenario” implies CVC’s acquisition of a stake without a full takeover. “In our opinion, the operation could have the government supportwhich must give approval for Golden Power purposes”, explain the Equita experts, adding that the idea remains “valid that TIM can then proceed with a conversion of savings to remove an obstacle to extraordinary operations and simplify the capital structure”. “In a take over scenario – it is underlined – we think that the offer could concern both ordinary and savings shares, but the offer of a bonus to savings shares would not be at all obvious, despite the failure to pay the dividend to savings shares in the latter 3 years.”
