At the entrance of the quarterly season, the markets look at caution at emerging geopolitical challenges: Tensions on commercial duties – in particular those promoted by the Trump Administration – are weighing down the sentiment of investors and reducing estimates on profits. It is a context that contrasted at the top of the G20 in South Africa, where economic diplomacies go hunting for a possibleand de-Escalation of the conflictthe. It will therefore be a crucial moment to actually measure the impact of commercial policies.
Expectations of profits under pressure
Analysts estimate a growth in profits for action (EPS) of the’s & P500 of 4–5% On an annual basis for the second quarter, well below the rhythms of the first quarter (around 12–13%). The slowdown is attributed to the uncertainties on global trade and potential compressed margins in sectors more exposed to imported costs and duties according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs Research has also calculated that the new tariff measures have already made the actual rate of duties rise from 3% to 13%, with an arrival forecast at 17% by the end of the year. Their study indicates that about 70% of the burden of duties will be transferred to consumers, while the REsto will fall partially on the companies themselves.
Impact on margins and forecasts
Analysts have also provided for a compression of Operating margins of about 50 basis points (from 12.1% to about 11.6%). However, Goldman remains moderately optimistic: the aggregate consensus could exceed low current expectations and the total annual EPS is estimated to grow by 7% in 2025 (up to about 262 dollars per share). The strategic team led by David Kostin provides that the S&P 500 will reach 6,500 points in 12 months, equal to a rise of about 4% from the current level. The half -yearly targets are 6,600 (about +6%) and annual of 6,900 ( +11%). The rally is guided by the strength of large-cap titles and the expectations of a more expansive monetary policy, that is, a reduction in rates by the Fed.
The G20 in South Africa
In Durban This week the finance ministers and the governors of the central banks will meet. Among the great absentees, according to Reuters, there will be the secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Beesent, who will not participate in the meeting, having chosen instead of giving priority to a mission in Japan. South Africa is subject to a new rate of 30%, the only country in sub -Saharan Africa to be identified in the last advertisement cycle of President Trump.
