The European Commission, with the economic forecasts of spring, has traced a picture of slowed growth for Italy and the whole European Union compared to what has been estimated last autumn. To weigh are mainly the weakening of global trade, international political tensions and commercial relations aimed at the United States.
Overall, the growth of the EU economy is confirmed on a weaker bases than expected, with a decreasing inflation but a complex dynamic between the reduction of the deficit and increase in debt. In parallel, the labor market remains stable, even if conditioned by global uncertainties.
Pil of Italy slowly: the causes
According to the European Commission, the growth of Italian GDP will be contained in the coming years. For 2025 a growth of the 0.7%while in 2026 it will be 0.9%. These estimates represent a reduction in the fall compared to the autumn forecasts, which indicated a growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
The Italian public deficit is expected in a gradual reduction: from 3.4% of GDP in 2024, to 3.3% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. Despite this descent, the public debt It is expected to be increased by 135.3% of GDP in 2024 to 138.2% in 2026. This increase is due, according to Brussels, also to the delayed impact of the home bonuses that engraved on the deficit until 2023.
The GDP of the Euro area
The spring forecasts highlight a reduction in growth prospects also for Eurozone and the entire EU. The euro area GDP is estimated at an increase of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, compared to the 1.3% and 1.6% expected in autumn. For the entire European Union, estimates are 1.1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
The Commission stressed that these data reflect the weakening of global commercial prospects and greater uncertainty about commercial policies. The report reads that “the risks for perspectives are down oriented” and that “a further fragmentation of global trade could mitigate the growth of GDP and rekindle inflationary pressure”.
Among the hypotheses considered, there is also the application by the United States of 10% duties on European goods, with exclusions only for steel, aluminum and cars (which remain subject to 25%). Bruxelles, however, also reports possible positive factors, such as “a further relaxation of commercial tensions between the EU and the USA” or “a faster expansion of exchanges with other countries, also thanks to new free trade agreements”.
Inflation It is expected to decline: in the Eurozone it will go from 2.4% of 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. At EU level, inflation could drop below 2% already in 2026, supported by the descent of energy prices and by the strengthening of the euro.
The labor market and the main indicators
The market of Work In the EU, it remains stable overall, despite commercial tensions and international political uncertainty. According to the commission, in the first quarter of 2025 the EU economy recorded a growth of 0.3%, maintaining a moderate but positive dynamic, after 0.4% of the previous quarter.
On a global level, the growth of the economy outside the EU is expected to 3.2% between 2025 and 2026, falling compared to the 3.6% estimated previously. In this context, EU exports will grow only 0.7% in 2025, mainly towed by services.
The investmentsafter a drop of 1.8% in 2024, they should increase by 1.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. The recovery will also be supported by European funds such as the Recovery Fund and the cohesion fund.
