Moody’s warns that a prolonged outage in the Strait of Hormuz could push gas prices in Europe well beyond current forward levels, potentially rising above 100 euros per megawatt hour. Just a few months ago, such a scenario seemed extreme. Today, with the strait effectively paralyzed by the conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel, it represents one of the most concrete risks for European energy supply.
Italy and Belgium are the most exposed countries
Moody’s report leaves no room for optimistic interpretations for Italy. The risk of supply shortages is concentrated above all in Italy and Belgium. In 2024, Qatar accounted for 4% of total LNG imports for Italy and 16% for Belgium. In the absence of alternative sources, this could result in significant deficits in domestic supplies.
It is no coincidence that Italy has been among the most active European countries on a diplomatic level. In mid-March, Rome and Paris initiated preliminary contacts with Tehran to guarantee the transit of European ships, with the aim of restoring flows that were now almost non-existent. In parallel, on March 18, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan signed a joint declaration calling for freedom of navigation in the strait.
Not all European countries are equally vulnerable. Moody’s paints a differentiated picture:
- Belgium: maximum exposure, with Qatar covering 16% of total LNG imports;
- United Kingdom: imports 6% of its LNG from Qatar, equal to 2% of total gas imports;
- Spain: modest exposure, around 2% of LNG imports;
- Germany and France: no direct imports from Qatar, therefore less vulnerable in the short term.
The storage hub
The problem does not only concern the immediate emergency, but also the consequences in the medium term. As Moody’s points out:
With gas storage currently below the long-term average, the main risk is a slowdown in storage releases over the summer, which would leave stocks below required levels ahead of the winter season.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen by May, the impact on prices would not fade quickly. According to Icis projections, prices would remain high for several months: around 65 euros/MWh in May, 40 euros in June and still around 10% above normal levels in July. The reopening of the strait, therefore, would not coincide with an immediate return to normality.
What happens in Hormuz
The turning point came on February 28, 2026, when Iran declared the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to joint military attacks by the United States and Israel.
In the space of a few hours, the transit of oil and methane tankers was reduced by between 40% and 50% compared to previous levels. By March 8, the situation worsened further: traffic was almost completely eliminated, with over 150 ships stopped outside the strait. During the same period, the price of Brent rose by more than $23 per barrel in just one week.
About a quarter of global seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz and about 20% of global LNG trade. This is not a secondary route, but a real bottleneck through which a fundamental part of the energy resources of the Persian Gulf passes towards the rest of the world. With the new Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei determined to keep the passage closed, the diplomatic picture remains extremely complex and uncertain.
