There Germanythe locomotive of Europe, has jammed and paying the highest price is the Italian production system. Between 2023 and the first ten months of 2024, the Exports to Germany They counted for 5.8 billion euros, a much heavier blow than in the shade of the customs rates threatened by Trump.
To certify it is the Cgia di Mestrewhich describes the slowdown of the German economy as a boulder on Italian companies. In 2023, the drop was 2.7 billion, followed by a further loss of 3.1 billion in the first ten months of 2024, marking a commercial hemorrhage difficult to buffer.
The German collapse crushes Italian trade
While the attention of many remains fixed on commercial tensions with the United States, the real ballast is represented by Germany. The collapse of the first European economy has translated into a massive Italian export contractionand, with a budget that exceeds 5.8 billion euros. And the worst could still come, if the German recession will turn into a lasting block of industrial orders.
The braking growth of the United States
A precedent was there in 2019, when the American tariff barriers did not prove to be the planned mortal blow. In 2020, Italian exports to the US dropped by 3.1 billion, but the pandemic He swept away any commercial logic, downsizing the weight of Washington’s moves.
Since 2010, Italian exports to the United States galloped tirelessly, touching in 2023 The peak Of 67.2 billion euros10.7% of national exports. The stars and stripes market remains the second most important destination after Germany, but the race has undergone a braking.
In the first ten months of 2024, overseas sales are reduced by 1.5 billion (-2.7%). A less drastic slowdown than the German blow (-4.9%), but still heavier than the slight decline recorded in France (-2.1%).
The sectors most exposed to commercial policies
If the United States should raise the duties at 10% on all European products, Italian exports would be faced with one stuck from 3.5 billion eurosa figure that could rise dramatically to 10-12 billion with a rate of 20%.
The most exposed sectors risk a cold shower: pharmaceutical, automotive and naval shipbuilding, three Made in Italy pillars that only in 2023 have moved over 16 billion euros over Ocean. A front attack on Italian excellence that dominates the US market.
The Italian regions most affected by the flexion of exports
The regions most linked to Germany tremble. Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto are at the forefront, followed by Piedmont and Tuscany, who overall generate the bulk of exports to Berlin.
The German crisis has made the market more and more unstable, leaving Italian companies pointed to the decrease in orders and prospects that are not very reassuring. Campania, which stands out for components and food products, also risks seeing its margins eroded.
The effect of dear energy on companies
In addition to chaos in global markets, another boulder breaks down on Italian companies: theexplosion of energy costs. In 2025, the electricity and gas bill risks inflating another 13.7 billion euros, with a surge of 19.2%.
A room that will mainly hit the north companies, the beating heart of the Italian manufacturing, already struggling with reduced margins and increasingly fierce international competition. The cost of energy is thus transformed into yet another burden that weighs on the shoulders of those who produce and try to remain competitive.
