Inflation will cost us dearly. For 2026 the estimate is 2.9%, for a withdrawal of over 1,500 euros per worker. The secretary of the CGIL Christian Ferrari, speaking in Parliament on the Public Finance Document, warned about this scenario. He calls for measures to support workers and pensioners.
The estimate is high, but the rate of price growth suggests that it is not too far from reality. In March 2026, for example, Istat recorded a rise in energy prices and an acceleration in food prices for a total value of +1.7% (up compared to +1.5% in February). Confindustria also intervened on the DFP and warns that, even if the war on Iran ended today, the impact would still be worth 0.1-0.3 percentage points of lost growth. In the event of a prolonged conflict, according to the director of the Confindustria Study Center, Alessandro Fontana, we would find ourselves faced with the most serious energy crisis in history.
Inflation on the rise: 1500 euros at a loss
On Monday 27 April there were hearings in the budget committees of the House and Senate on the Public Finance Document (Dfp). Confindustria, Confesercenti, Confprofessioni, Labor Consultants, Anci, Upi, Cisl, Uil and CGIL attended. The latter’s confederal secretary, Christian Ferrari, alerted those present to the hypothesis of inflation at 2.9%.
Ferrari quotes the Government’s own forecasts:
With a price growth of 2.9%, a worker with a taxable income of 35 thousand euros would suffer a further levy of over 1,500 euros in 2026.
Following the calculation on the estimates of the increases, for a pensioner with a check of 1,000 euros the tax cost would increase by 370 euros.
It is a theme dear to the CGIL. This is why Ferrari is asking again
neutralize the fiscal drain through the automatic indexation of the entire Irpef structure to inflation.
What is “fiscal drag”?
Fiscal drag, literally “fiscal drainage”, indicates a situation in which the tax burden on income increases due to inflation.
Irpef is a progressive tax, so the more you earn, the higher the rate. A salary increase that adjusts for inflation could push the worker or retiree into a higher tax bracket. However, the increase in the allowance does not directly correspond to the increase in real purchasing power. In fact, it might even go down.
This is why Ferrari is asking to “neutralize” fiscal drag by automatically indexing the Irpef structure to inflation. If inflation were to rise to 2.9%, the threshold of the Irpef brackets could also increase and avoid the “drainage”.
Is rising inflation inevitable?
The Confindustria Study Center explains at the hearing that if the war were to continue until the end of the year, we would find ourselves faced with
to the most serious energy crisis in history with systemic impacts.
Even just partially closing the Strait of Hormuz allows for limited global autonomy. According to estimates, with partial or total closure, the autonomy would be around 6-11 months and 2 have already passed.
The director of the Study Center, Alessandro Fontana, declared that
if the war reached until June we risk having an increase in costs of around 7 billion, if it reached the end of the year we would reach an impact of almost 7.6%, with an increase of almost 21 billion.
Consumer prices on the rise
Istat confirmed that in March 2026 the national consumer price index recorded a change of +0.5% on a monthly basis and +1.7% on an annual basis.
The increase in inflation is mainly due to the rise in energy prices, gas prices and food prices.
They increase:
- food, home and personal care goods (from +2.0% to +2.2%);
- products with a high purchase frequency (from +1.9% to +3.1%);
- regulated (+8.5%) and unregulated (+5.0%) energy prices;
- unprocessed foods (+0.7%);
- transport-related services (+0.5%).
