Since the outbreak of the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz we have seen prices rise. According to the analysis data of Facile.itwhich calculated how much more consumers spent in the last two months, Italians would have already spent 1.7 billion euros more. This figure derives largely from the increase in fuel prices (1.2 billion euros) and the increases in electricity and gas bills (500 million euros). Already at the beginning of March, estimates spoke of a possible increase of up to 166 euros per year on electricity and gas for each Italian family and ISTAT also reports the increases in food prices. According to data from Confesercenti, the increase in electricity and gas prices is also affecting trade and tourism businesses, with a burden that could reach 900 million euros by the end of the year. But let’s look at the increases in detail.
The increase in electricity and gas bills due to the war in Iran: up to 40 euros more
According to the analysis, the next bill for March and April will see an increase in prices of over 40 euros for all those who have an indexed price supply contract in the free market (i.e. a contract in which the price paid each month is not fixed, but follows the trend of the wholesale energy markets), for a total of 500 million euros throughout Italy.
The gas bills should suffer the greatest impact: for an average family, which consumes 1,100 smc (standard cubic metre), the average bill for March-April will be around 263 euros (+16%, 36 euros more than they would have spent if the tariffs had not increased). For this calculation, Facile.it used the values communicated by the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security (Division II of the General Directorate of Energy Sources and Qualifications). As regards electricity bills, always considering the consumption of a typical family (equal to 2,000 kWh), the bills for March and April will reach 110 euros, marking a +5%.
Fuel prices, petrol and diesel
According to the analysis, fuel prices are the prices that have seen the greatest growth: 1.2 billion euros spent more than what we would have spent if the tariffs had remained the same as pre-conflict ones.
Taking into consideration the price of petrol and diesel updated as of 4/26/2026 and a mileage of 10,000 km, a motorist spends in a year:
- approximately 1,147 euros in petrol, 50 euros more (5%) than the pre-conflict forecasts in February;
- around 1,132 euros in diesel, with an increase of 20%, i.e. 192 euros.
For the road haulage sector the increase is even more significant: if a truck driver used to spend 1,283 euros to travel 3,000 km, today he spends 1,544 (+262 euros).
ISTAT data on the costs of electricity, gas, fuel and food products
According to ISTAT data, in March 2026 inflation stood at +1.7% on an annual basis (from +1.5% in February), confirming the preliminary estimate. This increase is mainly due to the rise in prices of regulated energy (from -11.6% to -1.6%, domestic electricity and gas, whose prices are updated quarterly by the public regulatory authority ARERA), which rose sharply after months of decline, and unregulated (from -6.2% to -2.0%, are fuel at the pump, petrol and diesel, the price of which is freely formed on the market).
Furthermore, it is due to the acceleration in the price increases of unprocessed food (from +3.7% to +4.7% on an annual basis), i.e. fruit, vegetables, fresh meat, fish, eggs and in general everything that is not processed on an industrial level. They are the products with the most variable prices, because they depend on seasons, crops and weather – and, in the future, they may also depend on the lack of fertilizers, given that a third of global trade in raw materials for fertilizers passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
ISTAT notes that in the first quarter of 2026, families with low incomes saw their prices grow less (+1.0%) than wealthier families (+1.6%). How come? Because less well-off households spend a greater share on energy and basic food, categories that in this period were still benefiting from last year’s declines, while families with higher consumption also purchase services and durable goods, whose price categories have grown more.
Variable mortgage rates
Mortgage installments have also resumed their growth, although the ECB has not yet intervened on rates (which experts expect will happen in June). This happens because of the Euribor reference index, the interest rate at which European banks lend money to each other, which anticipates the ECB’s expectations of future rates. So, even if the ECB has not yet raised official rates, the markets expect it to do so due to the inflationary pressure linked to the war in Iran, and so the Euribor rises.
This is why the installments of variable mortgages are already increasing: the Euribor has risen by 15 basis points since the outbreak of the war, with peaks of +25 basis points on the 3-month Euribor (the rate most used as a reference for mortgages, which reflects the cost of an interbank loan with a duration of three months). Generally, the longer the maturity, the higher the rate tends to be, as the uncertainty about the future is greater.
How does this increase translate? In approximately 5 euros more in the April installments and in a further increase of 5 euros in the May installment (calculated on a standard variable loan taken out in recent years, i.e. a mortgage of 126,000 euros over 25 years, equal to 70% of the value of the property purchased). Unfortunately, estimates predict that it will not be the last increase: looking at the Euribor futures contracts, i.e. how much the markets expect the Euribor to be worth in the coming months, the installment of a standard mortgage could go from the current 620 euros to 642 euros by the beginning of the second half of the year, reaching around 660 euros by the end of the year. In this case, the calculation of the analysis of Facile.it is based on standard financing subscribed starting from 2022.
The impact on the Italian economy according to Confesercenti
The price increases do not only affect families. According to Confesercenti’s estimates, developed with Innova Research, the increase in electricity and gas prices is also affecting trade and tourism businesses, with an overall burden on bills that could reach almost 900 million euros by the end of 2026, for an average of around 1,500 euros per activity in 2026. The most exposed sectors are catering (+1,830 euros estimated for a restaurant) and hospitality (+2,723 euros for a 30 room hotel).
Regarding the macroeconomic framework, again according to Confesercenti estimates, in two months of conflict the expected growth of Italian GDP for 2026 could reduce by 0.3 percentage points, equal to 9.7 billion euros less than the pre-war forecasts. Consumption would slow down by 3.9 billion, while investments, held back by rising costs and uncertainty, could fall by 7.7 billion. Confirmation also comes from the International Monetary Fund, which in its latest World Economic Outlook has revised Italy’s growth estimates downwards to 0.5% for 2026 and 2027, cutting 0.2 percentage points compared to the January forecasts.
