“From a macroeconomic point of view, the main obstacle to be faced in 2025 swill be a scenario characterized by profound uncertainties at a macroeconomic and geopolitical level. The soft landing is being challenged by factors such as geopolitical tensions, new fiscal policies and the possibility of sudden interest rate interventions by central banks.” He underlines it Erk Subasi, Head of GAM Cantab explaining that such changes could generate periods of extreme volatility erend some vulnerable quantitative models, particularly those that rely on historical correlations breaking down in the moments of crisis.
Markets between volatility and opportunities
The same factors – continues the expert – they also offer the opportunity to obtain returnsthe significant ones in a scenario of this type. This is possible using investment strategiesor multi-asset and return profiles convex. The opportunity lies in moving from static diversification to a more dynamic and multi-asset strategy that aims to hedge macro risks and seize relative value opportunities in the different investment categories.
the GAM view
The opportunity of investment of 2025 consists in the ability to exploit the main fluctuations of financial instruments. Our strategy “Core Macros” is designed specifically for a context of this type: we try to exploit the main dislocations of the asset classes following the underlying momentum. This would ensure our models are not only resistant to shocks, but also ready to exploit the opportunities that will arise.
This year “there let’s wait significant developments on the iartificial intelligenceparticularly in research on causality and the capacity for deduction. THE great linguistic models (LLM), for the first time, make it possible for quant-macro strategies to have an extremely detailed and holistic understanding of the external world. For example, the introduction of new duties by the administration Trump could have significant repercussions.”
The scenarios
Using causal models based on artificial intelligence, “we can not only predict the impact on secondary markets such as emerging economies that act as alternative suppliers or on those who they will resent of changes in currency flows, but we can also formulate hypotheses on alternative scenarios”.