This week the attention of financial markets is all aimed at negotiations on Trump’s dutieswith the US administration that has decided to postpone from 9 July to 1 August the restoration of customs duties for countries that will not be able to conclude new commercial agreements with the United States, while the macroeconomic calendar is not very rich in significant data. Eyes also to the central banks, between the meetings of some minor institutions and the publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Fed (Wednesday).
Uncertainty about duties
The Units States are close to the finalization of several commercial agreements in the next few days and will notify the various countries the increase in rates by 9 July, the president said yesterday Donald Trumpwhile the highest rates will come into force on August 1st.
“President Trump will send letters to some of our commercial partners to communicate that if we do not proceed, on 1 August we will return to the tariff level of April 2”
The US Treasury Secretary told CNN Scott Bessent.
However, Trump also said that the duties could have a value “perhaps 60% or 70%” in recent days and yesterday threatened a further 10% for the countries that align themselves with the “anti -American policies” of BRICS group (which includes large countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China).
Macroeconomic data
It starts today with the industrial production of May Germany and the retail sales of theEurozonetogether with the feeling of the feeling that measures the trust of investors. Tomorrow Germany and France spread the balance of the commercial scale, while in USA The NFIB index will be disclosed, which measures optimism small American companies, and the New York Fed index on inflation expectations. On Wednesday there are on the agenda for the production and inflation of June in Chinathe weekly raw stocks in the USA, warehouse stocks and American wholesale sales in May. Thursday is the day of Italian industrial production in May and weekly requests for US aids. On Friday the UK GDP is expected in May, while France and Germany spread the data on the inflation of June in second reading.
The interventions of the central bankers
Today the interventions of Joachim Nagel and Robert Holzman of the European Central Bank (ECB). The interventions of Luis De Guindos and Joachim Nagel, always of the ECB, are on Wednesday. Thursday intervene Piero Cipollone and Francois Villas of the ECB, together with Alberto Musalem and Mary Dady of the Fed.
Central banks in Oceania
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) Rbnz will meet respectively Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The RBA is expected will reduce Its interest rate target of 25 other basic points, at 3.60%, since the inflationary pressure in Australia continues to decrease. Rbnz will probably keep the rates unchanged At 3.25%, although in May the bank’s projections indicated at least a further cut of the rates of 25 basis points.
