The OPEC+ is preparing to announce an increase in production of up to 500 thousand barrels, far greater than in charge. The rumors, already denied by the cartel, have already caused a fall of the raw prices, joining the prospects of an excess of offer on the market.
The increase in the production of the sign would accelerate the output phase from the strategy decided by the OPEC+ a year ago, which aimed to cut the production to support prices. Subsequently, the members of the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, started an opposite strategy, gradually increasing the offer, in an attempt to recover market shares. But the situation sees an excess of offer for 2026, which could further aggravate itself due to the OPEC increases, peace in Gaza and the resumption of flows from Iraq and through the Suez channel.
The oil price recorded a sharp correction this week. On Monday, the future on Brent and WTI collapsed by about 3%, continuing the negative performance on Tuesday, with the Brent With delivery in November which closed downwards of 95 cents (-1.4%) at 67.02 dollars per barrel and the subsequent December contract in C ALO at 66.03 dollars. US crude oil West Texas Intermediary He recorded a drop of $ 1.08 (-1.7%), reaching $ 62.37 a barrel. This morning the market is consolidating these levels, with some small coverage.
The next moves of the OPEC+
The OPEC+ will meet next Sunday to define the return strategy from the cuts made last year. A strategy pursued by Saudi Arabia and seven other countries to recover market shares. Last month, the cartel had decided an increase in production of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October, while two or you sources anticipate an increase between 274 thousand and 411 thousand barrels for November, which could also reach 500 thousand barrels starting from November, three times the quantity expected from the market, which expected a cut in line with the previous month.
The geopolitical picture
In the meantime, the oil has returned to flow for the first time in two and a half years from an Kurdistan oil pipeline, in northern Iraq, through Turkey, after a provisional agreement unlocked a stall situation in Iraq.
Even the agreement on Gaza reached between the President of the United States Donald Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contributes to loosening tensions on the market, although Hamas’s position has remained uncertain. A peace agreement for Gaza, in fact, would eliminate a significant part of the geopolitical risk prize, restoring normal maritime traffic through the Suez channel.
The forecast of a record surplus in 2026
The oil market could record a record surplus next year, according to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (AIE), due to the slowdown of Chinese demand and the accumulation of stocks by Beijing for its strategic reserves, and each more barrels offered to the market risks further aggravating this surplus. According to the AIE estimates, world production will exceed average of 3.33 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching a historical surplus record, just above the culmination of the pandemic in 2020.
On the other hand, the shutdown taken in the USA could re -abine this situation, with a slowdown in production and demand. On the offer front, the increases decided so far by OPEC+ could be effectively lower, since some members of the cartel must dispose of the previous overproduction and may have difficulty increasing the output in the immediate.
