Oil will live a difficult two -year period, accusing the impact of a world question that slows down, not only for duties announced by Trump, but also for one slower economic growth of expected. This is what emerges from the last monthly report of theOPECwhich was forced to Review (worse) the Outlook On the application for 2025 and 2026, after having also lowered the estimates of the previous two years (2023 and 2024) of 100 thousand barrels.
The new estimates on demand
The growth of global oil demand for 2025 was revised downwards (-150 thousand barrels) at 1.3 Mb/g, Reflecting the data received in the first quarter of 2025 and the recently announced American duties. The demand for oil in the OECD countries in 2025 was reviewed at the downward of about 60 thousand barrels per day and now it is expected that it will grow by about 0.04 MB/G, led by the Americas and by a recovery in Asia-Pacific. In the non -ocse countries, the demand for oil has been reviewed downwards about 90 thousand barrels, and it will be expected that it will grow by almost 1.25 MB/G on an annual basis, driven by China, India and other Asian countries, as well as from the Middle East and Latin America.
The application for oil will be expected to be supported by the strong demand of the Air transportor more generally from car fuelsas well as by industrial, building and agricultural activities in non -OECD countries.
Also the growth forecasts of the Global question of oil in 2026 have been revised downward (-300 thousand barrels)to take into account the expected impact of the new commercial duties announced by the United States. The global oil demand is expected in 2026 only will grow of 1.3 MB/G on an annual basis. For the OECD, a growth of 0.08 MB/G on an annual basis is expected, while for non -OECD countries an increase of 1.20 MB/g is expected.
The growth world economy is hard
Not just duties. OPEC also sees black for the growth of the global economy and believes that short -term trajectory is now subject to greater uncertainty. As a result, the global economic growth forecasts have been slightly 3% reduction magazines for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The United States’s economic growth forecasts were compared to 2.1% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, Japan at 1% and 0.9% of the Eurozone at 0.8% respectively for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026. The forecasts for economic growth in China were slightly magazines, respectively to 4.6% and 4.5%, those of 6.3% and 6.5%.
Falling waiting production
Production side, it is expected that The supply from countries outside the OPEC+ will increase of about 0.9 Mb/G on an annual basis in 2025, thanks to the greater offer of United States, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. The growth of production for 2026 was also slightly compared to the downward, attesting to about 0.9 MB/G, with the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina as a greater contribution. The oil production of the countries participating in the OPEC+ decreased by 37 thousand barrels per day in March, reaching an average of about 41.02 MB/G.
The Eight Countries of the OPEC+ – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – they decided last week to proceed with a Increase in production of 411 thousand barrels per day starting from the month of May. The decision came to the light of those who are defined as “healthy market fundamental” and “positive market perspectives”, in accordance with the decision already agreed on December 5, 2024 and reconfirmed on March 3, 2025, to start a gradual adjustment of the volunteer cuts equal to 2.2 million barrels per day decided previously.
Oil continues to slide
The petrolium confirms a performance heavily negative this year. The prices slipped to $ 61.78 per barrel for the WTI and 65.11 dollars per barrel for the Brent of the North Sea. Since the beginning of the year, crude oil has already lost 13% About and recorded a break down just last week, after the OPEC summit.
