A negative week closes for the titles of the real estate sector, listed in Piazza Affari and in Europe, with the attention of the investors who has concentrated, in addition to the quarterly season, now in the heart of the duties, also on the central banks, in particular, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan that have left their respective interest rates unchanged.
Fed cautiously at least
In line with the forecasts, the FOMC has maintained the reference rate for 4.25-4.50%unchanged. The press conference has confirmed the continuity line already traced previously, with Washington believing to be well positioned to respond to the evolution of the economy in the coming months, gradually evaluating the arrival data, explains Eric Winograd, US Economist of Alliancebernstein. “We continue to foresee a loosening in the second part of the year, with a total cut of 75 basis points. This provision, however, remains subject to a tangible weakening of economic data in the coming weeks. If this scenario does not materialize, it would be plausible that the Fed will postpone the intervention longer than I hypothesized”.
Bank of Japan, rates stopped at 0.5%
The Bank of Japan has maintained the key interest rate to 0.5%, with unanimous vote, hitting market expectations. According to the Central Bank, Japan’s economic growth is likely to be model, and then recover later. The annual increase rate of the consumer price index should be between 2.5 and 3.0% for the tax year 2025, between 1.5 and 2.0% for the tax year 2026 and around 2% for the tax year 2027.
“There are several risks for the perspectives – reads the Bank of Japan report – in particular, it remains highly uncertain how commercial and other policies will evolve in each jurisdiction and how the foreign economic activity and prices will react. It is therefore necessary to pay due attention to the impact of these developments on financial and evaluation markets and on the economic activity and prices of Japan”.
The trend of the real estate sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector on the Milanese square closed the eighth in strong decline with the FTSE Italia Al All Share Real Estate index which brings home a descent of over 2 percentage points. The same trend of the sector, at European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index falling by 2.23%.
Among the real estate companies listed in Piazza Affari, Aedes is the worst title and loses 3.8% percentage points. Down 3.2%inhabit the following by remediation (-2.5%), PGD (-2.3%) and Gabetti (-2%). The descent recorded by Next Re and Brioschi are fractional.
Macroeconomic data
Braking prices in the US immobiliare in May. The S&P Case-Shiller index, which measures the trend of prices in the main twenty metropolitan areas of the United States, highlighted a 2.8% annual increase, in braking compared to +3.4% of the previous month and +2.9% expected by the Consensus. On a monthly basis there was a drop of 0.3% as in April. The decreasing index reported a climb of 0.4% on a monthly basis, compared to +0.8% of the previous month. Disconsuum prices also according to what was detected by the FHFA index, developed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which measures the prices of US houses, recorded a monthly decrease of 0.2%, after the negative variation of 0.3%recorded in the previous month (revised by a preliminary -0.4%). Analysts’ estimates were for a decrease of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the index, calculated on the declared prices of the properties when the mortgage is turned on to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rose by 2.8% less than +3.2% of the previous month.
In the week to 25 July, mortgage questions collapse in the United States. The index that measures the volume of mortgage loan applications records a 3.8% decrease, after the +0.8% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests fell by 1.1%, while that relating to the new questions fell by 5.75%. According to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), rates on thirty -year mortgages fell to 6.83% from 60 previous 6.84%.
Sector studies
If last year a phenomenon had been said, that of transient rents – or of lease contracts not less than 30 days and not exceeding 18 months – which was depopulating in Italy, with a growing question everywhere, here a year after the trend instead overturned, especially in large cities. Also due to exponential growth prices in the last 12 months (the Italy data records a +28% compared to the first half of 2024), the request collapsed almost everywhere. It is the photograph taken from the latest research by Immobiliare.it Insights, the property company of the Immobiliare.it Group, specialized in market analysis and data intelligence, which analyzed the demand, prices and offer of the transitional leases in our peninsula and in 12 large centers of the country. Compared to a year ago (1st semester 2025 vs. 1st semester 2024), the most relevant contraction of the application is noted in Florence (-41%), with Venice in second place (-37%). Important and very similar decreases also in Naples, Verona and Palermo, which present -30%respectively, -29%and -28%. Genoa, on the other hand, is the city that has known the highest increase in prices in the last year (+29%, from 9.3 to 12 euros/m2). Rome is in third place and scores a +23%, while Milan stops at +6%.
