The topical returns the Dear Caffèdue to international rates of the raw material that travel on Historical maximums, for the combined effect of a series of factorssuch as drought in the production areas, the increase in the cost of energy and the speculations that have been inserted in an already very tense market. But let’s see what is the international situation and why the coffee price is increasing.
International coffee prices
On international markets, the coffee price has reached Record levels. The future for May delivery on the London market today records an increase of 1.11% a 5,397 dollars the tonnebringing rise from the beginning of years to +11%, while compared to March 2024 there is a surge of 65%.
In parallel, on the New York Stock Exchange, the same May contract marks a value as 388.83 cents the pound, in progress of 1.15% Compared to Friday. It is a 21% more than the beginning of the yearwhich leads to doubling the value of coffee compared to March 2024.
The latest report of theIco – International Coffee Organization, relating to the month of February, confirms that The composite coffee price index is Son average 354.32 cents of Dollar per pound, with an increase of 14.3% compared to January 2025.
The effect of climate change
The effects of climate change and the effects of prices and the effects of the prices e The extreme drought that has invested Brazil since last spring. In particular, the production has been affected by the scarcity of rains at the State Minas Geraisin Brazil, the area where Arabic coffee is produced, which has heavily compromised the harvest.
Also the alarms on duties emerged in the last period, due to the protectionist of Trump, have troubled the market, due to the uncertainty on “if” and “to how much” they will amount to the rates on the exported coffee.
The braking of exports
Exports are affected, which is braking worldwide. According to the last ICE report, in fact, the World coffee exports of each type (semi, toasted, soluble) have scored 10.83 million bags, in January 2025, down over 13% compared to the 12.49 million of the same month as last year. This is the third consecutive month of export contraction after 13 consecutive months of increase. In the First 4 months of the 2024/2025 seasontherefore, world exports are decrease by 4.9% to 42.79 million, compared to the 45.01 million of the same period as 2023/24.
In last 12 months available (February 2024 – January 2025), world exports have totaled 135.79 million bagsincreasing compared to the 128.04 million of the previous equivalent period. The shipments of Arabica have increased considerably to 85.7 million (+12.3%), while the volumes of Sturdy they decreased by 3.1% to 50.09 million.
The shelves of European supermarkets are emptied
The increase in coffee prices lies emptying the shelves great retail retailers in different European countries. For example, in Netherlandsthe two large supermarket chains are renegotting the supply contracts and have stopped selling certain coffee -based products. The same is being occurred in other countries, such as Germany and Belgium, where there are suspensions and deficiencies.
In Italy there is a fear of consumption impact
In Italy, coffee It costs on average almost the 20% more than 2021based on a study conducted by the Consumption Training and Research Center (CRC) in collaboration with Soloswhich fears an impact on coffee consumption. The impact produced by scarcity could in fact be added to dear energy and “Change consolidated habits ” of consumption of Italians. It is estimated a Increase in Espresso expenditure of over one billion to the same consumption, from 6.18 billion to 2021 to the current 7.32 billion.
And Gincreases them recorded so far they will not be isolated. According to Cristina Scocchia, CEO of Illycaffe, prices could grow a lot. They estimate In the coming months, increases by 15-20% due to the prices of increasingly high raw materials and also of the work of speculation.
“Today There are no real conditions Because the price must remain so high “, explains Scocchia, citing the adverse weather phenomena that have solved themselves in Brazil and Vietnam and well -known problems with the Suez channel, also largely solved. “Coffee is a ‘soft commodities’ and on these the speculation is very high“, Admits the manager of Illycaffè.
