The 2026 Economic and Financial Document has been approved. The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti, in a press conference at Palazzo Chigi after the approval by the Council of Ministers, explained that the “exceptional situation” has led to the revision of the GDP for both 2026 and 2027.
The minister added that, given that we are in non-normal circumstances, the forecasts contained in the document are valid, but also questionable starting today and in the coming weeks. Giorgetti then points out that there could be some updates.
The 2026 public finance document approved
The Council of Ministers approved the 2026 Economic and Financial Document. In this, the GDP for 2026 and 2027 was revised from +0.7% to +0.6% respectively.
The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti, during the press conference following the Council of Ministers, recalled that it is a different document compared to the past. It is a snapshot of the performance of public finances, linked to the performance of the economy.
Giorgetti wanted to underline that:
We do not live in normal circumstances, but of a totally exceptional type and therefore the forecasts, validated by the Parliamentary Budget Office on 8 April 2026, are already questionable today and in the coming weeks will be worthy of adjustments and updates.
The Document foresees “worst case” scenarios. Giorgetti, however, does not answer directly and says to turn the question back to Donald Trump about the period of the war in Iran:
If you believe that the Italian Economy Minister is able to make a correct forecast of the economic trend for the next 6-10 months, you are wrong. I take note of decisions that are well beyond the Italian government.
GDP estimates down
The 2026 Public Finance Document confirms the impact of the geopolitical crisis on the Italian economy. The first sign of this was given by Bank of Italy, according to which the basic scenario envisaged a slowdown in GDP to 0.5% for 2026 and 2027. A slight increase was estimated only starting from 2028, with a still low 0.08%.
The already downward estimates, compared to 0.6% in December for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027, have now been confirmed by the DFP. In summary, this adjusted the GDP:
- for 2026 from 0.7% to 0.6%;
- for 2027 from 0.8% to 0.6%;
- in 2028 from 0.9% to 0.8%.
However, they represent a better scenario than that hypothesized by the institute’s four-page report, according to which not even the worst scenario can be completely ruled out, i.e. the risk of zero growth in 2026 and a contraction of -0.6% in 2027.
Growing net debt
Again according to the forecasts contained in the Public Finance Document, as explained by Minister Giorgetti, the net debt for the next three years will also increase.
The deficit rises:
- in 2026 from 2.8% to 2.9%;
- in 2027 from 2.6% to 2.8%;
- in 2028 from 2.3% to 2.5%.
While the growth rate of net spending, which as the minister recalls is the fundamental element of compliance with the new governancein turn gets worse:
in 2025 from 1.3% to 1.9%, while it is confirmed at 1.6% for 2026.
The situation photographed by the 2026 Public Finance Document is that of an inevitable reduction in growth prospects. Giorgetti underlined that:
this picture photographs reality, but it will deserve to be explored in depth shortly with decisions of a political nature.
Giorgetti mentions the possibility of derogating defense spending.
The infringement procedure
Responding to a question about the infringement procedure, Giorgetti clarifies that he has met with the rating agencies and adds that they know the situation globally with regards to growth. He adds:
The confrontation is calm and serene; certainly, what is happening does not facilitate the prospects and, in particular, if the prospects for inflation and a monetary tightening were to increase, a vicious circle would be triggered to the detriment of businesses, families and sovereign states.
As for the 3.1% deficit:
as Boskov said: “A penalty is when the referee blows the whistle”. You can agree or not, but these are the rules of the game. The exit from the excessive deficit was of great interest to me until February 28, 2026, and absolutely less after that.
He adds that before 28 February the procedure should have been activated and remained below 3% by activating the Defense clause. Without exiting the procedure, we will have to wait for a parliamentary response.
Debt/GDP ratio: how much does the Superbonus still weigh
As regards the debt/GDP ratio, it is expected:
- in 2026 at 138.6%;
- in 2027 at 138.5%;
- in 2028 to 137.9%.
However, he adds that without Superbonus the public debt would have decreased:
The data is still affected by the Superbonus. It weighs on us 40 billion in 2026 and then there will be the tail end of 20 billion in 2027.
