Weak session for the European real estate sector on the stock exchangedespite the 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), also because the fourth cut of the year was widely expected. This can also be seen from the fact that in the last three weeks the Euribor and Eurirs rates have recorded negative variations, driven precisely by the prospect (which later materialized in the meeting on 12 December) of a new cut in official rates. The choice of a 25bp reduction was made by the ECB on the basis of updated assessments regarding the inflation outlook, the intensity of the transmission of monetary policy impulses and the growth dynamics.
Facile.it has estimated that, with the Eurotower cutting by 25 basis points, the installment of a standard variable mortgage should fall by around 18 euros in the coming months, going from the current 682 euros to 664 euros. From the beginning of 2024 to today, the installment of a standard mortgage has dropped by 66 euros, going from 748 euros to 682 euros, still very far from the values at the beginning of 2022, when it was equal to just 456 euros.
However, the continuous reduction in the cost of money was starting to be seen in Italian real estate sectorwhich according to Intesa Sanpaolo analysts “shows signs of improvement, visible in the recovery of sales in the second part of the year coinciding with the start of the rate cut by the ECB”. These are not sensational movements but nevertheless capable of decreeing that the most critical phase has been overcome, with 2024 starting to close with residential transactions recovering in the 2nd half of the year, which bring the annual figure to the same level as 2023 .
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector experienced a negative week at European level, with the index Stoxx 600 Real Estate which recorded -2.8% on a weekly basis, worse than the -0.5% of the year Stoxx Europe 600.
A significantly better performance was achieved by Italy, where the index FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate it gained 9% on a weekly basis, significantly outperforming the FTSE MIB index which closed the week with a rise of 1%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, there was a week positive for Risanamento (+25%, which is attempting a reversal after the declines of recent months), followed by Brioschi (+12%) and IGD (+8%), Gabetti (+6%). The worse performances, however, are those of Next Re (-2%). Smaller variations for Aedes (+1%) and Abitare In (+1%).
Business insights came from AbitareIna Milanese company leader in residential development and listed on Euronext STAR Milan, which closed on balance sheet as of September 30, 2024 with consolidated revenues of 74.8 million euros (116.3 million euros at 09.30.2023), consolidated EBITDA of 17.1 million euros (35 million euros at 09.30.2023), consolidated net profit attributable of the group equal to 5.8 million euros (24.3 million euros as of 09.30.2023). Consolidated net financial debt is equal to 89.1 million euros (38.5 million euros as of 09.30.2023). “The results of this exercise, as is known, are strongly affected by the blockade of urban planning and construction in the Municipality of Milan – commented the president Luigi Gozzini – We are waiting to see the approval of the authentic interpretation rule inappropriately defined as “Save Milan“, and to understand what the effects and timing will be for the restart of an entire affected sector”.
Macroeconomic data
The only macroeconomic inspiration comes from United Stateswhere the weekly mortgage applications: the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded an increase of 5.4%, after +2.8% in the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests jumped by 27.2%, while that relating to new applications fell by 4%. This was announced by the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicating that rates on 30-year mortgages decreased to 6.67% from the previous 6.69%.
Sector studies
With the end of the year upon us, we analyze the main ones real estate market trends in 2025. According to CENTURY 21 Italia, the Italian branch of the US real estate giant, in the residential sector, prices will rise again and up to 5 percentage points more are expected in 2025 compared to 2024, but only in large cities, while the market is stable or growing little in the rest of Italy. The prices of tourist rentals will also continue to rise, in line with what happened post-pandemic. Strong growth in logistics warehouses, whose prices could rise up to 10% compared to the previous year, thanks to the push of e-commerce which, after revolutionizing the way products are purchased, is preparing to boom in city spaces too.
As for the Christmas holidays, it is among the most renowned mountain destinations in Italy Cortina d’Ampezzo that’s it most requested by Scrooges looking for a luxury home in which to spend their holidays. The famous Venetian ski resort in fact wins around 40% of the total preferences, despite being, among those analysed, also the one in which the prices for purchasing valuable properties are highest, equal to around 16,000 euros/m2 on average, with a growth of around 10% compared to 2023. This is highlighted by a study by LuxuryEstate.com, the leading real estate portal in the luxury sector and partner of Immobiliare.it, according to which the second most requested city, with 26.5% of the overall demand, it is Courmayeurwhich however has decidedly lower prices per square meter, around 10,000 euros, even decreasing by around 4% compared to 2023.
