The real estate sector domestic closes an uncertain week, conditioned by nothing made of the ECB on rates, moreover widely expected. In view of the summer break, therefore, the ideas to ride a rise in the real estate sector, which also suffers from some negative data on the sales of houses.
The ECB takes a well -deserved pause
The most important appointment of the week was the one with the European Central Bank which, as widely awaited, left the cost of money unchanged, confirming Interest rates at 2% As for deposits, 2.15% for main refinancing operations and 2.4% for marginal refinancing operations.
President Christine Lagarde also left the door open to others Possible rates of rates in autumn and before the end of the year, confirming that uncertainty is “exceptionally high”. But Lagarde has also specified “We are in a good position, we are well positioned to face the turbulent waters and the risks that will develop over the next few months. And I refer in particular, but not only, to the risk linked to the duties. But geopolitical risks can also be included, you can include a vast uncertainty that could partly dissipate thanks to any temporal certainty that we will receive on the duties”.
The macro data of the week
The Mutual questions in the United States they recorded modest recovery. In the week to 23 July 2025, there is a increase of 0.8%after the strong 10% decline in the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests decreased by 2.6%, while that relating to the new questions rose by 3.4%. Trential mortgages rates risen to 6.84% from previous 6.82%.
The Sales of new homes in the United States they are grown in June of 0.6% At 627 thousand units, disappointing the expectations of the market that counted on a level of 649 thousand units.
In United Kingdomthe index of House prices developed by Tightmove, has reported a slowdown in the prices of the houses, recording a drop of 1.2% On a monthly basis in July, after the -0.3% of the previous month, which brings the difference on an annual basis to +0.1% (from +0.8%).
And sector studies
Following the ECB decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Average Variable rate mortgages at 20 and 30 years old is destined to remain stable on current levels even in the coming weeks. According to data of‘Mutuionline.it Observatoryin July the middle value registered at 2.63%, in line with that of last month and over a lower percentage point than in January 2025, when it was 3.71%. Considering a mortgage from 180,000 euros to 20 years, there is a saving on the monthly installment of 98 euros and on the entire loan of the mortgage of over 23,500 euros. As for funding a fixed rate, the scissor compared to the variable has opened further, with the Tan Middle that stands at 3.14%, Light rise compared to last month when it was 3.05% but on a historically acceptable level. This translates into a monthly installment of 46 euros higher than that of the variable rate, for a total expenditure of almost 11,000 euros greater on the duration of the mortgage.
According to a analyst of the analysis and research office of the Fabithe banking union, with the cuts of the rates decided by the ECB, i mortgages have returned to growwith over 10 billion euros of increase in the last 12 months, but the transmission of monetary policy from banks to families has stopped. If from January 2024 the credit institutions had even anticipated the descent of the cost of money, from September of the same year i rates applied to new mortgages have stabilized well above the levels of the ECB reference ratestopping between 3.6% and 3.9% despite the fact that official rates dropped to 2%. The differential between ECB rate and bank interest remains greater than 1.5 percentage points, a sign that something has stopped in the transmission belt of monetary policy.
The trend of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector closed the week down in Italy and in the EU. A little less in the EU where the index Stoxx 600 Real Estate He recorded a 0.7% decrease on a weekly basis.
A worst performance was recorded by Italy, where the index FTSE ITALY All Share Real Estate It leaves 1% on the parterre on a weekly basis, submerging the FTSE MIB market index which marks a progress of 1.2%.
Among the real estate companies listed in Piazza Affari, the best performance is that of Gabetti which advances by 5% on a weekly basis. In the sector it is also good for Aedes (+1%), while Brioschi It is the worst with a loss of over 2%. In red too IGD (-1.6%) e Rehabilitation (-0.5%).
