There are over 674 thousand Italian companies that could find themselves in financial difficulty in the next twelve months. This is what emerges from the 2026 Business scan of Sevendata, the observatory that analyzes the risk of insolvency of Italian companies.
Through predictive models based on budget data, chamber of commerce information, detrimental events, financial indicators and management profiles, the business system appears resilient, but with growing fragility. But in some regions, to date, the situation is worse than in others.
How many companies are at risk of bankruptcy in Italy
According to the analysis, the share of companies considered at risk of insolvency in Italy has risen to 12.1% of the economic activities registered by the Chambers of Commerce (5,570,296 in total). The share increased by one percentage point compared to the previous survey. This is one company in ten, although this ratio is not the same for everyone. In some regions, in fact, the chances of failure are three times higher.
Even if these are not companies automatically destined for bankruptcy, the rating developed by Sevendata represents a probabilistic evaluation, which takes into account factors such as:
- Chamber of Commerce data;
- company balance sheets;
- prejudicial events;
- bank overdrafts;
- profile of the administrators;
- asset and financial indicators;
- debt sustainability in the medium term.
In this way, it is possible to try to understand in advance how many realities could enter into crisis, allowing corrective interventions before the situation becomes irreversible.
The ranking of the Regions with the most companies close to insolvency
As the data reports:
- Lazio is the region that has the greatest concentration of companies considered vulnerable, with a share of 17.5%, practically one company in six;
- followed by Calabria and Campania, both with very high percentages;
- Trentino-Alto Adige, on the other hand, confirms itself as the most economically solid territory in the country.
The following table illustrates the complete ranking of Italian regions based on the percentage of companies at risk of insolvency, highlighting the territorial differences.
| Region | Companies at risk of insolvency |
|---|---|
| Lazio | 17.5% |
| Calabria | 14.0% |
| Campania | 13.8% |
| Sicily | 13.1% |
| Abruzzo | 13.0% |
| Lombardy | 12.6% |
| Molise | 12.2% |
| Umbria | 12.1% |
| Puglia | 12.1% |
| Basilicata | 11.8% |
| Liguria | 11.4% |
| Sardinia | 11.1% |
| Tuscany | 11.0% |
| Emilia-Romagna | 10.5% |
| Marche | 10.1% |
| Veneto | 9.0% |
| Friuli-Venezia Giulia | 8.7% |
| Piedmont | 8.6% |
| Aosta Valley | 7.5% |
| Trentino-Alto Adige | 6.6% |
The national average is 12.1% but, as can be deduced by looking at the percentages, it is not enough to distinguish North and South to understand the phenomenon. Given the presence of many southern regions with high percentages, Lombardy was also positioned in the ranking, which with 12.6% exceeds the Italian average, while regions such as Marche, Veneto and Piedmont are decidedly more virtuous.
In Trentino-Alto Adige, however, the average risk dropped to 6.6%, with the province of Bolzano remaining at 5.8% and that of Trento at 7.5%. And it is no coincidence that, while at a national level the number of active businesses decreases by 0.8%, the region instead records growth of 1.2%.
The economic sectors most exposed to financial difficulties
Taking into account what emerged from the analysis, the observatory identifies as activities considered most vulnerable those characterized by:
- strong initial investments;
- high capital intensity;
- strong exposure to fluctuations in energy and raw materials markets.
The sectors most at risk include:
- supply of electricity and gas;
- mining activities;
- water and waste management;
- real estate sector.
In Friuli-Venezia Giulia, for example, the risk reaches 27.3% for energy companies and 20.7% for mining companies.
In Veneto the situation is similar, but with a reversal of the top positions. In fact, extractive activities reach 28.1%, while the energy sector stands at 26.8%.
At the other end of the list are:
On average, these sectors show greater capital solidity and a better ability to absorb any economic shocks.
