Istat has revised its inflation estimates downwards. Prices in February vary on a monthly basis by +0.7%, while on an annual basis by +1.5%. The preliminary estimate was +1.6% year-on-year and +0.8% month-on-month. In particular, the shopping cart was revised downwards, going from +2.2% to +2.0%.
Core inflation instead went from +1.7% to +2.4%, while that for energy goods alone went from +1.9% to +2.5%. According to Codacons, however, the February inflation estimates are already “prehistoric”, because they have been overtaken by the Iranian effect on retail prices. The February data, they write, are affected by the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Games, while the crisis in the Middle East will be felt in March, when for families there will be an increase in annual expenses amounting to over 685 euros per household with two children.
Istat confirms the increase in inflation
Istat has released the inflation data recorded in February. The national consumer price index marks a change of +0.7% on a monthly basis and +1.5% on an annual basis. This is an increase, but still revised downwards compared to the preliminary estimates which marked respectively +1.6% on an annual basis and +0.8% on a monthly basis.
The shopping cart has been revised downwards, now showing +2.0% (from +2.2% previously), but there are other data that cause concern.
Core inflation at +2.4%
Change also for underlying inflation means the economic indicator that measures the increase in prices excluding volatile ones, i.e. energy and fresh food prices. These are two sectors strongly affected by the crisis in the Middle East, but according to Codacons the increase in these is unrelated to the crisis. The February data would relate to the increases compared to the Milan Cortina 2026 event. Worse increases will instead be visible in the March data.
In any case, underlying inflation increases and goes from +1.7% to +2.4%. That net of energy goods alone goes from +1.9% to +2.5%.
Istat writes that the significant acceleration is due to the evolution of prices:
- of recreational, cultural and personal care services, which marked +4.9%;
- of transport-related services, which marked +2.9%;
- of unprocessed foods, which marked +3.7%.
However, the decline in energy prices increased, marking a drop of -6.6%.
What will be the “Iran” effect on spending
Codacons, in a note, writes that the Istat data on February inflation are “prehistory”. In fact, these would have been overcome by the effect of the war unleashed against Iran, which weighs much more on retail prices. Again according to Codacons, these effects will be felt especially starting from March.
The data relating to February are, however, due to price increases on the occasion of the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games. The data published by Istat on 17 March, therefore, does not yet show the effects of the crisis in the Middle East.
Even so, inflation at +1.5% translates into an increase in spending equal to 496 euros per year for “typical” families and 685 euros for a family with two children.
The sectors with the highest price increases
According to Codacons analyses, the sectors that have increased prices the most are:
- hotels and motels +15.8% per year (+13.3% compared to the previous month);
- air ticket prices for domestic flights +37.8% per year (+22.6% compared to the previous month);
- sporting events +7.2% on an annual basis.
These are all sectors that revolve around sporting events such as the Winter Olympics. These, in the month of March, will fall again, while the increases due to the energy crisis will be felt, from fuel prices to the food sector.
Codacons writes:
In short, the worst is yet to come.
