China is sending a signal of improvement, but not yet of a real restart. In August the official manufacturing PMI index rose to 49.8 points, from 49.2 in July and above the 49.6 expected by economists. It is the second consecutive month below 50, the threshold that conventionally separates expansion and contraction of activity.
The data published this morning byNational Bureau of Statistics of China it is, however, more interesting than the reported numerical data alone suggests: production has returned above 50, to 50.4, and new orders have risen to 50.6. Orders destined for abroad also entered slightly into expansion territory, at 50.1.
For Italy it is a step to be followed with particular attention. In the first half of 2026, Italian exports grew overall by 4.5%, reaching 337.2 billion euros. Those headed to China did much better: +19% compared to the same period in 2025.
How long can this Made in Italy boom last if the world’s second largest economy continues to proceed at two speeds?
China’s PMI rises to 49.8, but has not yet recovered
The PMI, Purchasing Managers’ Index, measures, through the responses of companies’ purchasing managers, how production, orders, employment and other components of economic activity are evolving. Above 50 generally indicates expansion compared to the previous month, below 50 contraction.
The passage from 49.2 to 49.8 therefore signals that the downturn in Chinese industry is easing, not that it has already ended.
Under the general data, very marked differences emerge. The PMI for large companies rose to 50.6, while that of medium-sized companies remains at 49.4 and that of small companies drops to 47.9. The manufacturing employment index also remains weak, at 48.7.
The photograph is that of an industrial system that recovers especially in the strongest and most innovative segments.
High-tech and advanced industry run faster than the rest of China
It is probably the most interesting data to understand where the Chinese economy is moving.
The PMI of high-tech manufacturing rose to 52.9, while that of equipment manufacturers stood at 51.4. In sectors such as electrical machinery, computers, communications and electronics, manufacturing and new orders are both above 53.
This means that the most advanced part of China’s productive system continues to expand even while the general index remains below 50.
For Italian companies active in machinery, automation, components and industrial supplies with high added value is a potentially favorable signal: a China that invests in updating its industry continues to need technology and capital goods.
China’s real problem remains domestic demand
The other half of the photograph is much less brilliant.
The non-manufacturing PMI is stuck at 49, while that of services remains at 49.3. Constructions go down to 46.9 and above all the index of new orders for the entire non-manufacturing sector drops to 44.1.
This is an important weakness because services, construction and consumption depend much more directly on Chinese domestic demand.
And this is where the picture becomes less favorable for some Italian products. Fashion, luxury, design and premium agri-food depend more on the ability and willingness of Chinese consumers to spend. Strong high-tech manufacturing does not automatically compensate for weak household demand.
Italian exports to China grow by 19%
The starting point for Italy remains, however, very positive.
According to i data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Italian tradein the first six months of the year Italy’s overall exports increased by 4.5% in value and 0.7% in volume, while sales to Beijing rose by 19%.
China is, therefore, growing as a market for Italian companies much faster than the export average.
The new PMI does not erase this result. On the contrary, the return of manufacturing orders above 50 and the stability of foreign demand represent encouraging signs, but the August data also invites us not to take for granted that the +19% can continue at the same pace.
What changes now for Made in Italy
For Italian businesses, more than the general PMI at 49.8 it will be important to observe what part of the Chinese economy will be able to restart.
If production, technological investments and advanced industry continue to grow, Italian machinery and components could find new opportunities. If, however, consumption and services remain under pressure, the situation will be more delicate for the sectors linked to household spending.
China in August is therefore not an economy in decline, but neither is it an economy that has solved its problems.
For Made in Italy, this is perhaps the most important fact: the Chinese market continues to offer opportunities, but the 19% export boom comes just as it becomes increasingly necessary to understand where, within the Chinese economy, growth is really taking place.
