The main dish of the new European offensive against Moscow will be served today, Tuesday 6 May: the Commission is preparing to publish its roadmap to say Goodbye al Russian gas. End of the new contracts by 2025, definitive closure of the taps (including the supplies of GNL) by 2027, 100% duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers starting from July.
A plan that, for now, remains on paper, but which promises to be discussed. There is talk of force majeure clauses to get out of existing contracts without penalties and a legislative proposal that should arrive by the summer.
Stop to Russian gas: the commission ready to prohibit new contracts by 2025
The European imports of gas from Russia have already drastically decreased. THE’EU reduced Russian supplies from 45% of the needs in 2021 to 19% in 2024.
This gas still comes via Gasdotto (for example via Turkstream) and in the form of a liquefied natural gas (GNL). According to the most recent data mentioned by Bloomberg, the flow of gas via Gasdotto Russo to Europe has reduced around 10% of the total in 2024, while the imports of Russian GNL by sea have touched record levels.
It is calculated that By 2025with the interruption of transit through Ukraine, the share of Russian gas in the European supply can go down to 13%.
Russian gas down, but Europe continues to import GNL: this is where it comes from
The differences between the gas pipeline and the GNL are crucial. The pipeline is fixed and conditioned by international contractswhile the Gnl travele by ship And it can be diverted more easily. Currently some European Union countries receive Russian Gnl in their terminals: for example France and Belgium import liquefied fuel from Moscow and reim by the European network.
The Ministers of Energy of France, Belgium and Spain observe that the Russian Gnl who arrives in their ports often comes then resounded to other states (such as Germany) a cheaper prices. On the contrary, the supply via Pipeline (for example the old Nord Stream) is practically zeroed after the explosions in the Baltic and the blocking of flows from January 2024.
Alternative supplies: the US become the first EU energy partner
To replace Russian gas, the EU focuses on New suppliers. The Commission has announced its intention to increase GNL purchases from the United States (to fatten Trump on duties) and other countries, as well as to speed up investments in renewable energies.
Commissioner Jorgensen said that “sources that are not Russian” must be found to maintain energy at low prices.
At the same time, Europe has already signed long -term contracts with Qatar: in 2023 Qatarenergy agreed for 27 years with SHELL (for the Netherlands) and with Totallergies (for France). Traditional suppliers such as Norway and new infrastructure projects for GNL in various EU ports remain on the field.
100% EU duties on Russian fertilizers: what will change for farmers and consumers
The gas dossier is part of a Complex geopolitical pictureor. Unlike oil, the EU has not yet formally forbidden Russian gasbecause the unanimity of the 27 Member States and some countries (such as Hungary and Slovakia) would serve further energy penalties. At the same time, the international situation is fluid: the American administration has changed guidelines on energy exports and the Trump president uses the Made Gas uses as a commercial negotiation card.
This has made European leaders Cauti, fearing that complete addiction to US gas can become a further vulnerability. Some leaders of the energy and chemical sector, such as the top of Engie, Totellegies and of the German Pole Infraleuna, have hypothesized a Possible partial return to Russian gas in case of peace agreementswhile remaining under pre -war levels.
The Commission proposes 100% duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers Starting from July 2025. A direct blow to a market of over 2 billion euroswith the union that matters from Russia about a quarter of the fertilizers used every year. The idea is to hit the moscow wallet and relaunch European producers. But the recourse risks ending up on the shoulders of farmers. The prices of the raw materials for crops could impress themselves: duties that rise up to 300 euros per ton mean more narrow margins, higher costs and, consequently, less clerified shelves in supermarkets.
Second politician, the measure risks setting up a triple blow: at Passes of farmersat the Stability of the agro -food and to the spending of citizens. All this while Russian fertilizers remain among the most convenient, thanks to a consolidated logistics and lower energy costs. To put us back in the short term, it will be the supply chain.
