The first quarter of 2026 does not end in the best way for Campari Group. The group controlled by the Garavoglia family through Lagfin recorded revenues of 643 million euros, down 3.4% compared to the same period of the previous year and slightly below the analysts’ consensus expectations, which expected a turnover of 651 million.
The news, released on May 6th with markets closed, caused a sharp reaction on the market: at the moment, the stock is losing 13% on Piazza Affari, reaching an intraday low of 5.70 euros per share.
The numbers for the quarter
Despite the strong sales recorded on the stock market, the picture appears less worrying than one might think. Organic growth stood at 2.9%, a figure substantially in line with underlying expectations. Several external factors weighed on the reported results:
- exchange rates, mainly attributable to the weakness of the US dollar and the Jamaican dollar compared to the euro;
- the sale of Cinzano, a brand considered non-strategic as part of the portfolio reorganization.
Added to these elements is a targeted inventory optimization in the United States on non-priority brands, which had an impact estimated at approximately 10 million euros.
From a geographical point of view, growth proved to be relatively well distributed between the different areas:
- Europe (+1.9%), supported by the United Kingdom, Italy and Germany which represents 43% of the overall turnover;
- North America (+2.2%), driven by the United States, where Aperol and Espolon showed strong performance despite the reduction in inventories;
- Emerging markets (+12.7%), accelerating strongly thanks above all to Brazil and Argentina;
- Asia Pacific and Global Travel Retail (-1.6%) slightly down, penalized by the weakness of the duty free channel and geopolitical tensions, with the crisis in the Middle East causing a 13.5% drop in the travel segment.
Confirmed guidance and plan on margins
Despite a lower-than-expected quarter, management confirmed guidance for the full year 2026. The group expects organic revenue growth of around 3% and superior performance compared to the global alcohol market.
CEO Simon Hunt also anticipated an acceleration in the second half of the year, which has historically been more favorable for the drinks sector. Hunt said:
we started 2026 with a solid performance in the smallest quarter, thanks to the implementation of the strategy focused on fewer initiatives, but with greater strategic impact.
Among the elements that will weigh on the accounts are US duties, estimated at around 30 million euros on an annual basis. At the same time, the company continues its sales and cost containment plan, with benefits estimated at approximately 70 basis points on margin in 2026 and 200 basis points overall by 2027.
The reaction of analysts
The subdued quarterly reports and the market reaction, with the stock currently at -13%, have pushed analysts to revise downwards their estimates for the 2026 half-year. Intermonte has slightly corrected its profitability forecasts, while maintaining a target price of 8 euros, a level which implies a significant upside potential compared to current prices. Equita Sim analysts are more cautious, but confirm the buy rating with a target price of 7.5 euros.
