Trump effect and forecasts at 2040

In spite of the most pessimistic forecasts of the International Energy Agency and some players in the oil sector, such as BP, the application for oil is intended for keep longer of what was thought. This is what the long -term report of the Dutch energy Vitol foresees, which manages about 7% of the crude oil treated globally every day.

The peak at the end of the decade and the estimates at 2040

According to the report, the global question of oil will probably continue to increase, to reach a peak of 110 million of barrels per day at the end of this decade and it is likely that it will remain at this level until the decline starts from the middle of the following decade. By 2040it is expected that it will go down at the current levels of about 105 million of barrels a day.

Basa’s forecast on a compensation effect of the question that, while accusing the negative impact of the increase in electric mobility and the use of sustainable fuels in the aviation sectorwill be restarted by an increase in demand by other sectors, such as that petrochemical.

“The increase in population, income and urbanization are increasing the demand for plastic on a global level and, in emerging economies, there is also an increase in residential activities and between the SMEs”, reads the Vitol report, which also provides for a demand supported for the aviation, which “will increase up to 10% of the application barrel by 2040, compared to 7% today. The adoption of sustainable fuel for the aviation (SAF) will probably increase in the forecast period, but it is unlikely that it is high enough to modify a tendency to rise for Jet Fuel demand “.

Contrasting forecasts with the previous ones

The forecasts formulated by Vitol question what has been previously estimated byAIE – International Energy Agencyaccording to which oil demand would have reached a peak of 105.6 million of Barili in 2029to then fall back with the increase in electric mobility and the spread of sustainable fuels for the aviation.

Estimates also shared by BPwhich had foreseen a peak of the oil demand at the end of this decade and a massive downsizing around the 91.4 MBG at 2040.

The current situation

The demand for crude oil has been serving since last year Gray economic forecastsboth for the world economy and for the Chinese economy, which is confirmed in slowing down. Factors that have pushed OPEC+ to postpone the expected productive increase in the intention of supporting prices several times.

But the advent of Trump and the announcement of a intransigent policy founded on duties Importations changed the cards to the table, due to the risk of increasing geopolitical tensions and negative impact on the growth of the world economy. In addition, the American president has urged the sign to lower prices To help put an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. And while the response of the OPEC+is expected, some delegates anticipate the intention of increase production of oil from the month of April.

The prices of crude oil in the rise

Meanwhile, on the main oil squares, the raw prices have rebounded since last week, precisely on the threat of data by Trump. The WTI US (Light raw) marks a strong increase of 2.61% to 74.42 dollars to the barrel, while the Brent of the North Sea records growth of 1.7% to 76.99 dollars to the barrel. January was a positive month for crude oil which overall gained 1.8% (WTI).