In 2026, Italian families and businesses will find themselves having to deal with a new, heavy wave of energy price increases. According to estimates by the CGIA Research Office, the overall cost for electricity, gas and fuel will increase by 29 billion euros compared to 2025.
Increases in petrol, electricity and gas
The heaviest component concerns fuels. Petrol and diesel will in fact record an overall increase of 13.6 billion euros, equal to +20.4%. Pump prices have already reached very high levels:
- 1.91 euros per liter for petrol;
- 2.04 euros for diesel in self-service mode.
The price increases are respectively 14.4% and 18.5% compared to the period before the military escalation. An increase that directly affects motorists, transport and logistics, with inevitable cascading repercussions on the final prices of goods and services.
On the electricity front, the estimated burden is 10.2 billion euros (+12.9%). The wholesale price grew by 51.2% in just a few months, going from 106.7 to 161.2 euros per MWh. The increase in gas is even more marked, marking an increase of 71.6%, with the cost rising from 32.4 to 57 euros per MWh. In this case, the overall blow for the country is estimated at 5 billion euros (+14.6%).
The regions that pay the most
From a territorial point of view, the increases hit the most productive areas of the country the most. Lombardy is in the lead, with an increase of 5.4 billion euros (+15.1%), followed by Emilia-Romagna (3 billion, +16.1%) and Veneto (2.9 billion, +15.8%). These are regions with a high industrial and manufacturing density, where the cost of energy has a decisive impact on company balance sheets.
| Region | Increase (€ million) | Change % 2026/2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lombardy | +5,402 | +15.1% |
| Emilia-Romagna | +3,011 | +16.1% |
| Veneto | +2,952 | +15.8% |
| Lazio | +2,272 | +16.3% |
| Piedmont | +2,118 | +15.4% |
| Tuscany | +1,935 | +15.9% |
| Sicily | +1,845 | +17.0% |
| Campania | +1,840 | +17.0% |
| Puglia | +1,578 | +16.5% |
| Friuli-Venezia Giulia | +820 | +15.5% |
| Marche | +749 | +16.4% |
| Calabria | +746 | +17.8% |
| Trentino-Alto Adige | +687 | +16.5% |
| Abruzzo | +685 | +16.5% |
| Sardinia | +673 | +16.5% |
| Liguria | +626 | +15.9% |
| Umbria | +507 | +16.1% |
| Basilicata | +243 | +16.3% |
| Molise | +146 | +16.6% |
| Aosta Valley | +76 | +15.7% |
The moves of the Government and the EU
On the investment front, the Government has already intervened by allocating 7 billion euros, of which 5 are intended to mitigate the cost of electricity and gas and 2 to reduce excise duties on fuel. However, these resources cover only a limited part of the overall impact, around a quarter of the estimated total. For this reason, the executive is apparently evaluating a further intervention of another 7 billion by the autumn, subject however to the green light from the European Union on greater flexibility in public finances.
And it is precisely Brussels, at the moment, that is perceived as the great absentee. As the CGIA explains in a note, it is a different attitude from that taken after the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
Between 2022 and 2023, Brussels also authorized Italy to reduce VAT on bills, introduced a cap on the price of gas to contain its volatility and allowed the application of a solidarity contribution on the extra profits of large energy multinationals. Even then these companies recorded exceptional profits.
While waiting for developments, the risk is that high energy costs will continue to slow down economic growth, reducing the purchasing power of families and squeezing company margins.
