A positive week ends for the main European bags. As expected, the Shutdown took place in the United States, after the democratic and republican leaders have not been able to find an agreement even in the short term to maintain the government fully financed beyond the current tax year.
The expectations of new cuts by the Fed grow are growing
The sentiment of the investors was supported by the renewed bets on the cuts of US interest rates. The weak data on private employment in the United States have revived the expectations of a reduction in the cost of money, by the Federal Reserve, already starting from the meeting of this month.
The markets are preparing for the possibility that the closure of the US government may continue at least until the end of next week, with the consequence of delays in the publication of fundamental economic data, such as the report on nonfarm payrolls and requests for unemployment benefits. This represents a problem for the Fed, which depends on the data, and will be forced to rely on less complete indicators such as the ADP report that has shown a clear cooling of the labor market. This statistics guarantees that the Fed will cut the rates both in October and in December.
Stable EU inflation: the current ECB orientation confirmed
As required by economists, the last figure on inflation in the European Union, equal to 2.2%, is widely located within the Target of the European Central Bank, strengthening the idea that the inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are stabilizing. Although they are slightly above the goal “next but less than 2%”, this detection will hardly trigger significant monetary policy changes, explains Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer of Moneyfarm. The ECB should therefore maintain the current orientation, confirming the rates and continuing to carefully monitor the background dynamics.
Gold, prices close to historic maximums on expected cutting fed cuts and political uncertainty
The gold quotations remain stable near the historical tops, supported by the renewed bets on the cuts of US interest rates, by the closure of government activities in Washington (Shutdown) and the strong demand for investors. The future contract has touched a top to over 3,920 dollars. The weak data on private employment in the United States, which show a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, have revived the expectations of a cut of rates by the Federal Reserve, already starting from the meeting of this month. According to the future Fedwatch, listed on the CME, operators are serving an almost certain reduction of 25 basis points.
OPEC+ towards the increase in oil production up to 500 thousand barrels
Brusca correction, however, this week for oil on the expectations that OPEC+, on Sunday, could announce an increase in the production of 500 thousand barrels, far greater than in charge. The increase in the production of the sign would accelerate the exit phase from the cuts decided a year ago by the OPEC+ and, together with the resumption of Kurdistan exports, the diminishing of the tensions in Israel and the braking of the demand, would inflate the offer surplus already provided by the International Energy Agency for 2026.
The weekly performance of the stock exchange
The best performance of the week is recorded by the Frankfurt square on the rise of over 3 percentage points. Paris follows with +3.5%, raises more than 2% are recorded by London, Madrid and Milan. The ending also set positive for the Wall Street bag.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
In Piazza Affari, Best Performer is the Fincantieri title that brings home a +24%: Mediobanca analysts brought the Target Price of the title for 27 euros, with an increase of 35% (from € 20). The upgrade of the Target Price of Fincantieri by Mediobanca reflects the solid position of the group led by Ad Folgiero in grasping the exceptional growth of global demand in the naval sector, with particular emphasis on the defense and the underwater sector. Among the best blue chips, also, Tim with a +10.3%: its business unit, Tim Enterprise, accelerated on the digital transformation of the country with a 1 billion euro investment plan in three years. Fly Stellantis +12% driven by rumors about the possible transfer of the Car Sharing division, the sales data in Italy and the USA higher than the estimates and some analysts’ judgments. Among the worst, instead Mediobanca is positioned which slips by 13%.
