The decision of the Federal Reserve Of keep interest rates unchanged In an interval between 4.25% and 4.50% represent a strong signal of prudence. But in a context of weak euro and growing global economic tensions, which are The concrete relapses for Italy?
To understand the impact of this choice, it is essential to analyze both the motivations of the Federal Reserve and the Euro-Dollaro dynamicwhich is penalizing the single currency. Two factors that, combined, risk influencing the Italian economy in a significant way, from export to public debt, to the purchasing power of citizens.
Why has the Fed decided to stay still on USA rates?
President Jerome Powell was clear: “We can be patient”. An affirmation that perfectly photographs the awaited attitude of the Fed. The American economy, although uncertain, is still considered “in a solid position”. THE I risk, however, there is no shortage: The Trump administration has reintroduced commercial duties that could have still little quantifiable effects, and global macroeconomic uncertainty has increased.
In this scenario, Fed’s decision was that of freeze rates. It is not a sign of weakness, but rather caution. The American central bank wants to avoid compressing growth excessively, but at the same time wants carefully monitor inflation signals, unemployment and duties impacts.
At the same time, the differential in the ECB and Fed rates, geopolitical tensions and political instability in some Member States, are pushing investors towards the US currency, considered safer and more profitable. This has an impact on the euro, which continues to Losing ground on the dollar.
A growing problem for Europe (and Italy)
In April 2025 the euro/dollar gearbox touched the minimums For over a year, stabilizing under 1.06. And this is a problem for Europe and, therefore, also for Italy because the weakness of the euro involves a increase in the cost of importsespecially for raw materials such as gas, oil and wheat, which are negotiated in dollars. For an imported country like ours, this translates into an increase in production prices and, cascade, consumption.
Italy It matters over 75% of energy which consumes, largely in dollars. A weak euro therefore makes energy supplies more expensive. This phenomenon translates directly into an increase in costs for businesses and bills for families. At a time when inflation is already above the desired levels, the unfavorable change could accentuate the pressure on prices, feeding social discontent and complicating the choices of tax policy.
The European Central Bank is in one uncomfortable locationthat is, choose whether to continue keeping high rates to anchor prices on prices, or loosen them to stimulate growth. However, any early cut could further weaken the euro and feed distortions in energy prices.
Christine Lagarde is aware of the risks and for now preaching prudence. But the pressure on European governments, Italy in the lead, increases.
What should the Italian government do? Because if it is true that the risk of anemic growth requires stimulus policies, it must also be said that the margins of fiscal maneuver are tight. In this context, some priorities are clear. For example, it becomes important Defend purchasing powerthrough targeted measures to contain the impact of energy increases, but also support exportsperhaps by strengthening the promotion tools and public guarantees for companies operating outside the EU.
