In recent weeks, in international economic policy news, there is often talk of USA DAZI on exportsthat is, of indirect taxes that would affect the movement of goods from one country to another and which, in essence, would constitute a burden on companies that aim to sell their products abroad. A hot topic returned after Donald Trump’s second election, which immediately expressed its intention to impose the rates increased also to EU Member States.
Just on these themes is fresh an investigation of the Cgia di Mestrea well -known association for its research and economic analysis activities, with specific attention to SMEs, autonomous work and local and national economy. The Cgia has published a study that at the greater risk of economic repercussions would be, in Italy, the export of the South.
Let’s find out together what are the reasons, but we also try to suggest possible counter -moves to protect production and work of a vast and delicate area of the peninsula.
The investigation of the Cgia Mestre on the export of the South Regions
The duties are applied for various reasons:
- protect the internal economy;
- ensure the supply of essential goods;
- increase national revenues.
They can however generate commercial voltages among the countries and influence the prices of products on the global market. The Cgia Mestre Studies Office indicates that the economic policy of the duties could affect, above all, the products exported by the south because almost all regions of this area of the peninsula are characterized by one poor variety of goods sold in foreign markets.
In the South, the production focuses, in fact, on some agricultural, industrial and manufacturing activities, often linked to Traditional sectors And this could make the South more vulnerable to the policies of Donald Trump, with export limitations and repercussions in terms of GDP and overall economic growth of Italy.
Not only that. On closer inspection, in this scenario, the impossibility of quickly diversify exports or compensate for losses with other markets could have negative effects on income and employment in the South, which are already not particularly flourishing. Recall that Italian exports today applies about 40% of our GDP and that the export of goods from Italy to the USA is worth the large figure of 66 billion euros.
The value of the product diversification index
Thanks to an elaboration conducted on the data basis IstatThe analysis proves interesting because it measures, numerically, the product diversification index of exports by region, providing a clear and adherent picture to reality. This index weighs the economic value of exports of the top ten product groups on the total of regional exports and:
- The higher the ratio between the export of the top ten product groups and the overall exports (diversification index) is high, much less regional exports will be diversified, thus being more exposed to the conjunctures of international trade;
- The lower the index, the more the regional exports will be diversified, thus resulting less sensitive to “earthquakes” in international trade.
Today the two regions that present the best product diversification index are the Lombardy and the Venetowhile having the worst diversification indices are, in order:
- Sardinia;
- Molise;
- Sicily;
- Valle d’Aosta (only exception between the northern regions);
- Basilicata;
- Calabria;
- Campania.
These are regions all with values over 70%.
The Association highlights that in Sardinia and Sicily dominates the export of the products deriving from the refining of the petroliumwhile in Molise the sale of the chemicals/Plastics and rubber materials, motor vehicles and baked goods. In southern Italy hit by the duties only Puglia “saves”, presenting a high level of diversification.
Possible countermeasures to American duties
The regions of Southern Italy already face the delicate structural challenges in international trade, together with a fierce competition: that’s why the adoption of some counter -moves would be desirable, to curb the negative effects of the duties:
- new commercial relations and bilateral agreements;
- tax incentives and tax credits;
- emergency and financing funds for the diversification of exports;
- Promotion of Made in Italy products and strategic negotiations.
On closer inspection, at national level it would be advisable to strengthen commercial relations with the European Union, the BRICS countries and other emerging economies, promoting bilateral agreements with states that can compensate for the loss of market shares in the USA. It is the road traced by the Italian anti duties plan recently presented by Antonio Tajani.
At the same time, as support for exporting companies, the regulatory provision of specific tax incentivescapable of promoting innovation and competitiveness on global markets, would constitute a sort of parachute. Think of possible tax credits for research and development or for expenses related to internationalization or, again, ad tax breaks For companies that invest in green transition or innovative technologies, such as ai, robotics or internet of things.
Not only that. Also the creation of emergency funds ad hoc, having the purpose of supporting the companies of the South penalized by duties, could be an effective compensation of the latest news. A support fund for exporting companies would support employers and employment against Economic losses due to the drop in exports to markets subject to duties.
Southern companies that export assets of the agri -food, fashion or technologies sectors could request national authorities for a Fulfiled rate financing or for a Lost a contributioncapable of covering the negative effects of new economic policies. On the level of the operating rules, access to the fund could be reserved for companies that prove a significant loss of turnover due to the duties, as a reduction between 10% and 20% of sales to the US market.
Similarly, another valid remedy could be the financing funds specific to stimulate the geographical diversification exports, perhaps towards Asian or African countries, and reduce dependence on markets such as the US one.
Not only that. The strengthening of the international promotion campaigns of Made in Italy, the promotion of negotiations with the USA to obtain derogation O more favorable conditions for some product sectors, as well as the choice to work hard, at European level, to contest the duties at the OMC, the World Trade Organization, constitute other possible counter -moves to the duties.
In conclusion, these initiatives, together with the possible creation of partnerships and consortia between agriculture and industry, as well as of integrated production hubs, industrial parks and agri-business, also thanks to the collaboration of the territorial institutions, would represent a combined approach between national strategy and interventions aimed at local level, such as to reduce the negative impact of the commercial war and make the companies in the South more resilient in the long period.
