French banking giant BNP Paribas missed analysts’ expectations in the third quarter of 2025 due to caution among major corporate clients and higher provisions for bad loans, but made progress in integrating AXA IM, an acquisition that allows it to create an asset management leader that ranks as No. 3 among European asset managers, with more than 1,600 billion euros of assets managed.
Looking at the most important items in the income statement, BNP recorded a net profit of 3.04 billion euros for the July-September period, up 6.1% compared to the previous year, but below the average of 3.09 billion euros estimated by 16 analysts in a consensus provided by the company. Revenue rose 5.3% to 12.6 billion euros, missing the average estimate of 12.8 billion euros.
The main divisions
Corporate & Institutional Banking (CIB) net interest income increases 4.5%/3Q24, with a record quarter reflecting the strength of our Originate & Distribute model. Global Banking revenues are down (-2.6%/3Q24 for risk-weighted assets, down -11.5%/3Q24) but are holding up, in a more challenging environment than last year. Global Markets records significant growth of +9.4%/3Q24, despite an unfavorable currency effect. Equity & Prime Services achieved a considerable increase of +17.9%/3Q24, driven by the three segments of Derivatives, Cash and Prime Services and FICC recorded growth of +3.7%/3Q24 thanks to securities lending activities and the good level of credit activity. Securities Services grows (+5.0%), driven by a high level of transactions.
The intermediation margin of Investment & Protection Services (IPS) grew by +27.5%, supported by the integration of AXA IM and the organic growth of Insurance and Wealth Management. Starting from this quarter, it accounts for AXA IM’s net banking income, which amounted to 367 million euros this quarter. Revenues from Insurance (+7.7%/3Q24) and Wealth Management (+10.4%/3Q24) are increasing, supported by good level of inflows.
Cost of risk and provisions
In 3Q25, the Group’s cost of risk stood at €905 million (€729 million in 3Q24), equal to 39 basis points in relation to customer loans. Global Markets’ cost of risk is increasing, “due to a specific dossier in the quarter”, reads the note on the accounts.
In 3Q25, net provisions on non-performing loans (level 3) amounted to €1,064 million (€946 million in 3Q24).
The contribution of AXA IM
The third quarter was marked by AXA IM’s first contribution to the Group’s results. From a financial perspective, revenue and cost synergies are estimated at €550 million pre-tax for 2029. On this basis, the initial target for expected return on investment is revised upwards to 18% in 2028 and 22% in 2029 (compared to an initial target of 14% in 2028 and 20% in 2029). The cost synergies will allow the implementation of a high-performance industrial platform. These synergies are estimated at €400 million pre-tax, two-thirds of which by 2027, and represent approximately 18% of the combined cost base. The synergies in terms of revenues are based on the Group’s integrated model and will allow the growth of the new platform to be accelerated. Their estimated amount is 150 million euros before taxes, of which 50% by 2027.
Integration costs are estimated at 690 million euros and the annual amortization of the partnership at 100 million euros. The impact on the CET1 ratio is 35 basis points. Overall, the integration of AXA IM is expected to contribute more than 50 basis points to the Group’s ROTE from 2028.
The CEO’s comment
“In the 3rd quarter, the Group achieved good operational performances in all its three divisions”
commented CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafé.
“The financial structure is very solid, with a CET1 ratio of 12.5% and organic capital generation of 30 basis points. Our results are in line with our 2025 net profit target of above €12.2 billion and with our growth trajectory for 2026. This quarter is characterized by the integration of AXA IM, which constitutes a strategic transformation factor for the Group and allows us to become leader in the asset management sector”.
BNL’s performance
Deposits of Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL), the group’s Italian subsidiary, are growing in the third quarter of 2025 (+0.3%/3Q24), in particular at the level of businesses and Private Banking customers, partially offset by the decline in individual customers. Loans are increasing (+0.8%/3Q24). The quarter
“it is characterized by good stability in loans to businesses, partially offset by the decline in residential credit, as a result of a selective approach in granting mortgages”
highlights the company.
Indirect collections increased by +5.6% compared to 09/30/2024, driven by Private Banking customers (across all products), mutual funds and administered collections. Private Banking net inflows stood at €0.8 billion in 3Q25 (+€2.8 billion in 9M25). Net interest and other banking income, equal to 686 million euros, increased by +0.3%/3Q24. Operating costs, equal to 411 million euros, are decreasing (-1.6%/3Q24), thanks to structural cost reduction measures. The scissors effect is positive (+1.9 points). Gross operating profit amounted to 274 million euros (+3.2%/3Q24).
At 57 million euros, the cost of risk is decreasing and stands at 31 basis points in relation to customer loans, confirming the continuous improvement of the risk profile. Consequently, after the attribution of one third of the Private Banking results to the Wealth Management business line (IPS division), BNL generates a pre-tax profit of 309 million euros, a considerable increase (+45.0%/3Q24, net of the impact of the revaluation of shareholdings), due to the growth in the operating result.
