THE Consumer prices in the United States I am Probably increased in June 2025potentially marking the beginning of an increase in long -awaited long inflation, induced by duties, which made the Federal Reserve cautious in resuming the cuts of interest rates. Confirmation will arrive at 2.30 pm, Italian time, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States will spread the data, the most awaited in this week’s macroeconomic calendar.
The headline index
According to the Analysts’s Consensus, theconsumer price index has probably increased 0.3% Last month, after a slight rise of 0.1% in May. It would be the greater increase since January, with the prices of petrol in probable recovery after four consecutive monthly drops. Furthermore, slight increases in food prices are expected, also thanks to the moderation of the cost of eggs due to the reduction of the epidemic of avian influence.
In the 12 months Until June, the consumer price index is expected to increase the 2.6% In June, after increasing by 2.4% in May.
Core data
Excluding the volatile components of food and energy, it is estimated that inflation core is increased of the 0.3% In June, after a slight rise of 0.1% in May. Also in this case it would be the greatest rise, with the increase probably due to a series of voices subject to duties, including furniture and free time items.
In the 12 months Until June, core inflation is estimated to increase 3.0%after increasing by 2.8% for three consecutive months.
Pressure on Powell
With a relatively positive relationship, it is legitimate to expect that “in the coming weeks requests from the Trump Administration are intensifying so that the Fed lowers interest rates“, Mark Dowding, Fixed Income, that of RBC Bluebay AM, pointed out, according to the expert, this could support short -term returns:“ The prospects that the next president of the Fed is chosen on the basis of his willingness to implement the rates required by the President could also support the titles at 2 years. The same scenario could nervous the longer deadline “.
THE Inflation data from February to May were weakbringing President Donald Trump to repeatedly ask the US central bank to reduce the cost of money.
The next meeting
Analysts’ forecasts suggest that the central bank will maintain its own reference rate of reference in the interval between 4.25% and 4.50% at the end of a monetary policy meeting scheduled for the end of July.
THE verbal The meeting of the Central Bank of 17-18 June, published last week, showed that only “a couple” have declared that they believed that rates could already go down to the meeting of 29-30 July.
Hawkish statements
Meanwhile, cautious statements have continued to arrive by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed Committee that decides on rates. Yesterday Beth Hammackpresident of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, he said in an interview not to “see an imminent need to cut rates” and believes that the Fed is “close enough to the neutral rate level”.
