Istat has published the review of the estimates of the main Italian economic data for 2023 and 2024 Also confirmed that the state has returned to spending less than it derives from taxes, if interest on debt is excluded.
These data are comforting for the government, which will have to use them to calculate the availability of the state in view of the maneuver. After the improvement of the rating, the expenditure for the interest on debt could also drop.
GDP estimates remain unchanged
Istat has published the reviews of Italian economic data, from GDP to public debt, for 2023 and 2024. These revisions are spread periodically, because the data on which the first calculations of these parameters are based are often only of estimates. Over the months, Istat collects official data and is therefore able to provide more precise calculations.
In the last document published by Istat, it is recorded that:
- In 2023 the GDP grew by 1% and not 0.7% as initially calculated;
- In 2024 the GDP grew by 0.7%, as calculated last March.
The results are both positive, also that of 2024. The fact that last year’s estimate remained unchanged despite the fact that that of 2023 grew significantly means that, even in 2024, Istat had underestimated Italian growth.
Improves public debt
State debt data have also improved regarding 2024:
- The debt went from 135% to 134.9% of GDP;
- The deficit/GDP ratio went from 3.5% to 3.4%;
- The primary surplus was confirmed at 0.5% of the GDP.
Of these three data, the debt relationship with GDP is the only one that can be seen as negative, because in 2023 it was 133.9%. This increase is due to both a growth in debt (from 2,869 to 2,966 billion euros) and in slowing down the growth of GDP (from 1% to 0.7%).
The reduction of the deficit/GDP ratio is very important. The data confirm that, in a year, the difference between what the state spends and the one it collects (the deficit) has halved, going from 153 billion to 73 billion, and from 7.2% to 3.4% of GDP. The parameters with which the EU evaluates the stability of the public accounts of a state indicate as its objective to be achieved a deficit of 3%.
Finally, the return of the primary surplus is also essential. If you exclude the expenditure for the interest to be paid on the debt, the Italian state has grossed 11 billion euros more than those he spent, 0.5% of GDP. It hadn’t happened since 2019 that Italy had a positive primary surplus. Before the Covid-19, however, this figure was around 1.5% of the GDP.
What Istat data mean for the maneuver
The review of Istat data was among the most awaited news by the government in view of the maneuver. Confirmations and upward estimates help the executive, which must estimate how much it can spend without compromising public accounts. Another positive news, after rating in BBB+ by Fitch.
Less debt and more growth could also mean more resources for the Budget Law. The government clarified that the cardinal measure of the maneuver will be the reduction of the IRPEF for the average class. In doubt, however, the possibility of a quinques scrapping of the tax collection files, requested by the League.
If the economic accounts show themselves better than expected, however, the government could have more resources to make this proposal too. Furthermore, the blocking of the increase in retirement age is also to be evaluated, which has an estimated cost of 3 billion euros.
