A significant turnaround in the fight against tax evasion. This is what emerged from the hearing of Giacomo Ricotti, head of the tax service of Bankitalia, who illustrated the updated data on the tax registry. Compared to 2017 and on MEF data, evasion in Italy has undergone a clear contraction, descending to 97 billion euros with a reduction of 25 billion.
Improvement does not only concern the absolute value: the propensity to the evasion also falls, which fell by almost 6 percentage points, going from 21% in 2017 to the current 15.1%. A signal that the measures put in the field begin to produce the first effects.
What more evidences
In detail of the data presented during the hearing, Giacomo Ricotti provided the most recent estimates relating to 2021. In that year, the total tax evasion and contribution (the so -called tax gap) would have been equal to over 82 billion euros. The strictly fiscal component, excluding the contributions, stood at around 72 billion, with a propensity for the evasion that fell to 15% of the theoretical revenue.
The analysis of the individual taxes reveals where the phenomenon is more marked. The highest tax gap is recorded for IRPEF on income from self -employment and business, which alone is worth 29.6 billion (with a propensity for the tax evasion of 66.8%). Follow:
- VAT (17.8 billion, equal to 13.6%);
- IRES (about 8 billion and 18.8%);
- IMU and TASI (about 5.1 billion and 21.4%);
- IRAP (4.7 billion and 15.9%);
- Irpef at irregular employee (almost 4 billion and 2.3%).
How much electronic billing has recorded
A significant progress, but not yet sufficient to fill the gap with the main European partners. In fact, Italy remains one of the countries most exposed to the phenomenon, albeit with a monitoring and traceability of the data that places it among the most advanced, thanks to the extensive use of electronic invoicing and the electronic transmission of the fees. As Giacomo Ricotti of Bankitalia pointed out:
If Spain is characterized by the amplitude of the information collected, Italy is one of the few administrations which, together with it, stands out for the use of the data of the electronic billing systems. Our country is also the only one, among the main ones, which makes use of the electronic transmission of the fees, an instrument little used also in the remaining countries of the overall sample.
Despite progress, the alert remains high. The 72 billion of tax evasion are equivalent to about three points of GDP, a weight that still represents a significant obstacle to the competitiveness of the country.
The Ia concrete help? What Bankitalia says
A further help can come from artificial intelligence. According to Ricotti, the AI ”greatly expands the possibilities to exploit the data of the tax information system, opening up to scenarios” until a few years ago unpredictable “.
The applications are duplicate, both for the administration and for taxpayers: in the first, regarding predictive analysis of behaviors, real -time examination of information and even a “continuous” tax assessment; For the latter, it can be an ally in the implementation of forms of advanced virtual assistance thanks to the generative AI. The advantages are therefore clear: greater efficiency and a powerful contrast to the evasion, so much so that the same tax delegation promotes its employment.
However, these tools are not without risk, which according to the Bank of Italy “must be mitigated through a regulatory framework respectful of the rights of taxpayers and a human supervision that guarantees a transparent use of technology”. For Bankitalia, therefore, the AI must be a support, never a substitute for the administration.
