If the crisis in the Persian Gulf does not stop, small Italian businesses risk paying a very high price. The estimates developed by Cna are clear: a prolongation of the conflict until December could translate into an additional 30 billion euros in energy spending compared to current levels. An impact that would put the survival of around 300 thousand companies and over 1.5 million workers at risk.
A system already under pressure
Italy is historically among the European countries most exposed to energy shocks, and the current situation confirms this. Tensions in the Gulf area have already caused oil and gas prices to rise, with direct effects on the balance sheets of small businesses.
According to Cna, if current prices were to remain until May, the increase in energy spending compared to last year would already be around 6 billion euros on an annual basis. A significant figure, but still lower than the worst case scenario: another six months of conflict would in fact lead to a quadrupling of the impact.
Dario Costantini, president of Cna, declared:
Italy remains among the most vulnerable European countries during energy shocks. The continuation of the conflict in the Gulf risks causing a 30 billion euro hit on companies due to energy costs. An unsustainable increase in costs for around 300 thousand small businesses. Emergency measures and reforms are needed to cut energy prices.
Who risks more
The most affected areas are small businesses, for which the cost of energy weighs between 12% and 40% of total costs. These are companies with thin margins and little ability to absorb sudden and prolonged increases.
The most exposed sector is that of dyeing and laundries. For the 14 thousand active companies, energy has already accounted for 35% of costs in 2025, with an average expense of 17 thousand euros per company. With the ongoing price increases, this figure could rise up to 22 thousand euros, an increase that is difficult to transfer to prices without losing customers. A critical situation also for beauty centres, where the use of high-consumption technologies brings the burden of bills to between 23% and 32% of costs, with an annual expense of between 32 thousand and 46 thousand euros.
The 10 thousand leather tanning companies record an energy impact of between 15% and 20%, similar to that of the ceramic and iron processing sectors. For glass companies, gas and electricity can represent up to 30% of costs, depending on the type of processing.
Even the apparently less energy-intensive sectors are not immune:
- for bakers and producers of baked goods (over 40 thousand companies), energy is 14% of costs;
- for car repairers the incidence is close to 20%;
- on the stone sector – transformation over 10%;
- food processing approximately 7%, with strong indirect exposure to the cost of raw materials;
- mechanical engineering is at 4-5%, but vulnerable to fluctuations in raw materials which can account for 30% of production costs.
What to do
The concrete risk is the trigger of a spiral of closures, reduction in employment and loss of competitiveness, precisely in sectors such as fashion, craftsmanship and food which represent the manufacturing heart of the country. The energy crisis of 2022 has already shown how fragile the balance of these realities can be. Today the scenario recurs, with potentially larger dimensions.
The trade associations are calling for structural interventions: from the strengthening of renewable sources to the revision of the tax component of bills, up to emergency support measures for the most exposed categories. The time to intervene, they warn, is running out.
