In the first quarter of 2026 the Italian economy continued to grow, but at an increasingly weak pace. According to the preliminary estimate released by Istat, on 30 April 2026, GDP increased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.7% on an annual basis, i.e. compared to the same period in 2025. The sign remains positive, but the margin compared to zero is narrowing.
The growth achieved, half a point for all of 2026
The growth achieved for the whole of 2026 stands at 0.5%. This is the level of annual growth that would be recorded if, in the remaining quarters of the year, GDP did not vary further. In other words, even in the event of stagnation between now and December, Italy would still close the year with an increase of 0.5%. It is a modest result, which reflects the fragility of the recovery started after the pandemic crisis. It also highlights the difficulty in maintaining momentum in an increasingly complex international context.
The services sector recorded an increase in added value, confirming itself as the main driver of the Italian economy. On the contrary, both the industrial and agricultural sectors contracted. On the demand side, exports supported GDP, at least partially offsetting the weakness of domestic demand.
How much the Italian economy is growing
Istat data clearly shows the evolution of the Italian economy in recent years. After the post-pandemic rebound in the two-year period 2021-2022 – when economic variations had even reached +1.6% in a single quarter – growth has progressively slowed down.
In 2024 the increases were almost zero, oscillating between 0.0% and 0.2% quarterly. In 2025, a slight recovery was observed, with variations between 0.0% and +0.3%, and a fourth quarter closed at +0.3%. The first quarter of 2026, with +0.2%, is part of this phase of very moderate expansion.
Below is a summary table with data from 2022 to today:
| Quarter | % cyclical change |
|---|---|
| 2022 – I | +0.7 |
| 2022 – II | +1.6 |
| 2022 – III | +0.1 |
| 2022 – IV | -0.2 |
| 2023 – I | +0.6 |
| 2023 – II | +0.1 |
| 2023 – III | +0.1 |
| 2023 – IV | +0.3 |
| 2024 – I | +0.1 |
| 2024 – II | +0.2 |
| 2024 – III | 0.0 |
| 2024 – IV | +0.1 |
| 2025 – I | +0.3 |
| 2025 – II | 0.0 |
| 2025 – III | +0.2 |
| 2025 – IV | +0.3 |
Geopolitical unknowns and inflation
The macroeconomic framework remains influenced by various risk factors:
- geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears related to strategic trade corridors;
- the impact on inflation, with direct effects on raw material prices;
- the compression of families’ purchasing power, which risks further slowing down domestic demand.
These are elements that weigh on the prospects for the next few quarters and also make the stability of the growth achieved of 0.5% for 2026 uncertain.
Unc: “Insignificant increase and the worst is yet to come”
An increase that is “derisory and worrying if you consider that the worst is yet to come”, says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union, commenting on the Istat data on GDP. In a note he states:
despite the fact that in the first quarter of the year the war in the Middle East was unable to produce significant repercussions on our industries and only led to a slight increase in inflation, growth was just 0.2%, down compared to the +0.3% of the quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025. Even in the trend data, it fell from +0.9% to +0.7%. We therefore ask ourselves what could happen in the second quarter of 2026, when for example the first increased electricity and gas bills arrive.
