The week opened with a slight increase in the spread and with BTP yields gradually increasing, discounting the international crisis, which has fully affected the bond market, also neutralizing the confirmation of Italy’s rating by S&P.
Bond yields in tension
At a global level, sovereign bond yields are under tension – from the USA to the Far East – discounting the increase in inflation in response to tensions on energy prices.
The Italian market is no exception, where the BTP-Bund Spread stood at 79 basis points, compared to 77 points at the close of last Friday, when the differential with the German bond had already increased 4 points compared to the previous session. The yield on the Italian ten-year government bond rose to 3.96%, compared to 3.93% at Friday’s close, compared to a yield on the German Bund of the same maturity at 3.17%.
The effect of the crisis in the Middle East, which fuels the risks linked to the surge in inflation, also neutralized the positive effect of the confirmation of the rating by S&P, which reiterated the “BBB+” and the “positive” outlook already provided in the review of January 30, 2026.
Standard and Poor’s confirmed Italy’s rating and outlook on Friday, in line with its previous assessment in January. No shock for spreads and BTPs.
The update from the beginning of the year has been confirmed
No change to the rating of Italian public debt by S&P, which confirmed the ‘BBB+’ and the ‘positive’ outlook already provided in the review of 30 January 2026.
Last January, in fact, S&P had kept the credit rating unchanged at ‘BBB+’, however improving the outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ and rewarding “fiscal resilience” and the prospect of a gradual reduction in net debt, with the estimate of a slow trend of decline in public debt in 2028. An improvement, therefore, compared to the previous review, in October 2025, when S&P confirmed the status quo, after the upgrade a few months earlier, in April 2025, when the agency had promoted Meloni’s Italy, raising the rating from ‘BBB’ to ‘BBB+’, with a ‘stable’ outlook.
The agency continues to bet on a possible reduction in public debt from 2028, despite structural fragilities, and confirms confidence in the government’s ability to maintain a credible budget line, despite an unstable international context.
Public accounts under the microscope
S&P’s confirmation came at a time when public finances are at the center of attention. The executive’s declared priority objective remains that of supporting families and businesses in dealing with the energy price increases triggered by the conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani spoke on the topic, supporting the need for more than just stop-gap interventions on excise duties. “I don’t rule out a corrective move,” he added on a day when the spread had started to rise again. But government sources then denied the deputy prime minister’s words on the possibility of a corrective measure.
The executive with the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti is working with the European institutions to extend the flexibility clause foreseen for defense expenditure also to energy expenditure, leveraging mechanisms already foreseen by the community rules for exceptional situations, which allow deficit overruns. Confirmation also came from the letter sent by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to EU President Ursula von der Leyen, in which she justifies the request with the difficulty of explaining to public opinion why the energy crisis is not addressed as done for the SAFE model, which excludes defense spending from the calculation.
