Spotlight on the new wave of major initial public offerings (IPOs) poised to change the investment landscape. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are ready to go public and, according to the announced figures, SpaceX’s placement could become the largest IPO of all time. Such deals are expected to generate significant investor interest, produce changes in the composition of indices and strengthen the dominance of the technology sector. The expected stock market listings follow the profits recently achieved by the main ‘hyperscalers’ in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector driven by substantial ‘other income’ linked to the increase in valuations of private investments in companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, demonstrating the growing financial interdependence of the sector. This was underlined by Graham Secker, Equity Strategy Lead at Pictet Wealth Management.
Stock market listing
The spotlight is on SpaceX which has presented the documentation for its debut on the stock exchange which – explains the expert – could become an unprecedented operation in the history of the financial markets and cause a wave of important IPOs of technology companies capable of redefining the composition of the Wall Street indices. While the size of the offering and proposed valuation have not yet been disclosed, reports indicate a target of $1.75 trillion. This record-breaking launch should mark the start of a banner year for IPOs, as OpenAI and Anthropic also prepare to go public. These are companies at the forefront of AI and space technology and their arrival on the stock exchange promises to arouse considerable interest from investors.
The proliferation of tech IPOs could further strengthen the technology sector’s leadership once these stocks are included in major indexes. While the market capitalization of these companies is significant, the actual share of shares of each of them to be sold in the IPO, the so-called free float, is likely to be far lower. In fact, SpaceX could be valued at 1,750 billion dollars, but only shares worth around 75 billion, equal to 4.3%, will actually be in circulation. It remains to be seen when, how and if these three giants will enter the blue-chip indices. Currently they may not yet satisfy the required requirements or perhaps they will only be able to comply with them after a period that risks being prolonged.
The major indices are now under pressure to review their long-standing eligibility criteria so as to avoid missing out on the opportunities offered by the stellar IPOs of these companies which, in the absence of such changes, will presumably face long waiting periods before being included. In particular, from 1 May 2026 the NASDAQ Composite Index eliminated the long-established barriers that prevented large private companies from entering the index after listing on the stock exchange. With the new rule ensuring ‘expedited entry’, the NASDAQ will wait at least 15 trading days before listing newly listed companies beyond the previously mandated three-month minimum deadline. Furthermore, instead of simply adding the free float to the index calculation, it could apply an increase factor capable of even tripling its value to increase the share of new inclusions in the index, thus determining a growth in potential demand well beyond the current liquidity of the security. It is not yet clear how the other indices will react.
Circular System
The complex system of circular financial agreements developed by the AI sector – in which suppliers finance customers who, in turn, finance suppliers – raises fears for its stability and sustainability. Such agreements cThey include supplier financing, increasing customer concentration, long-term purchasing commitments, revenue-sharing programs, take-or-pay contracts, supplier buyback agreements, and content licensing in exchange for access to models. Overall, they allow participants to expand their infrastructure much more than would be possible with their cash flows, explains the expert, underlining that this circularity has also blurred the boundary between public and private markets. Publicly traded hyperscalers have become important channels through which to gain exposure to private market AI valuations, which has significant financial consequences. A notable example is Alphabet and Amazon who have invested heavily in Anthropic. Following the increase in the latter’s valuations, they also managed to increase the value of the shares they already owned.
This environment has influenced the recent earnings performance of major AI hyperscalers. Sales and profits exceeded expectations, but a closer analysis reveals that a considerable portion of this growth comes from ‘other income’, mainly linked to the revaluation of private investments in companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. It is a trend that highlights the increasingly interdependent nature of the AI sector, in which private investments and financing rounds are now a fundamental component of total profits. The capital made available by these large tech companies has in turn allowed AI companies to win large IT contracts with cloud service providers such as Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. As such, OpenAI and Anthropic now make up a significant share of the cloud computing business of some of the industry’s largest providers.
Conclusions
The clear fact – concludes the expert – is that the imminent IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic mark a turning point for the technology markets, as they offer investors new opportunities, but also introduce further elements of complexity. These IPOs are expected to further consolidate industry leadership. However, the system of increasingly circular financial arrangements and the growing interdependence with the AI system highlight the importance of rigorous analysis. As the market digests the new wave of tech company listings, investors should be on their toes and find a balance between enthusiasm for innovation and careful risk management.
