The numbers for the first quarter of 2026 tell of a private markets market that is not slowing down, but changing its approach. The managers focus on fewer operations, but of a larger size, both when they invest and when they disinvest: a strategy that cuts across Private Equity, Private Credit and Private Infrastructure, albeit with different declinations for each segment. This is what emerges from the quarterly report on private markets published by Fundstore, which every three months monitors the health of these three asset classes through collection, investment and performance indicators.
Private Equity
On the fundraising side, Private Equity recorded 162 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2026. The cumulative figure for the last 12 months (April 2025 – March 2026) stands at 373 billion dollars, down 10% compared to the previous period (January-December 2025), but with a sign of recovery in the most recent quarter: +15% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. According to analysts, the decline in medium-term collections does not represent an alarm bell regarding investor interest in the asset class, but is rather the reflection of a market that has already collected in abundance in previous years. Large managers still have significant reserves of dry powder – capital raised and not yet invested – and the focus has shifted to its effective use. The recovery recorded in the last quarter could therefore herald the start of a new expansionary phase of the cycle.
As regards deployment, 4,168 new Private Equity deals were announced in the first quarter of 2026, while the cumulative figure for the last 12 months stands at 19,682 deals, down 7% compared to the previous 12 months. Despite a lower volume of transactions, however, the overall value invested is increasing: in the last 12 months, managers have employed around 2.1 trillion dollars, a figure which – excluding the fourth quarter of 2025 – has not been reached since the third quarter of 2022. The message that emerges is that of funds increasingly oriented towards focusing on a smaller number of transactions, but of a larger average size, with a more careful selection of target companies in a context of still high valuations.
On the exit front, the value recorded in Q1 2026 was 294 billion dollars, while the cumulative figure for the last 12 months reached 1.29 trillion dollars, down 3% compared to the previous period. Broadening the horizon to the last three years, however, the trend remains one of growth, with an increase of 80% compared to the beginning of 2023. Also in this case the “fewer operations, larger tickets” paradigm would be confirmed: the slight short-term decline should be read in the context of managers postponing some exits waiting for more favorable market conditions, rather than as a signal of deterioration of the portfolios.
On a fundamental level, despite the correction suffered by the multiples of traditional software companies due to the effect of AI, the aggregate value of private companies in America and Europe would continue to grow, supported by the expansion of profits and a structural trend of increasing productivity.
Private Credit
Private Credit closed the first quarter of 2026 with collections of $99 billion. The cumulative figure for the last 12 months reached 392 billion dollars, up 2.5% compared to the previous period. The figure would be particularly significant if read in light of the media attention – mostly negative – that the segment has received in recent months, also due to an increase in reimbursement requests from some retail subscribers. The numbers, however, would tell a different story: the first quarter of 2026 would have been one of the most prolific ever in terms of collections. The demand for access to the asset class by new investors would remain structurally high, while the degree of selectivity would change, with capital increasingly concentrating towards managers with the most solid track records and the most transparent structures.
On the deployment front, in the first quarter of 2026 the value invested in Direct Lending (Europe and the United States) was 26.5 billion dollars, while the cumulative figure for the last 12 months reached 112.5 billion dollars, up 5% compared to the previous period. In a context in which bank credit is often too rigid for the needs of growing companies and public bond markets remain sensitive to volatility, Private Credit would continue to represent a valid alternative financing channel. Also in this segment the trend towards fewer but larger operations would be confirmed: the still high rates would increase the cost of debt, requiring managers to make a more rigorous selection of counterparties to contain the risks of default.
In terms of value generation, the average spread on Direct Lending operations in the first quarter of 2026 stood at 497 basis points, a slight increase (approximately +15-30 bps) compared to the previous quarter, a sign of a greater perception of risk on the new loans disbursed. According to analysts, however, an increase in spreads would not necessarily imply the start of a crisis: the increase recorded would be limited and market fundamentals would remain solid, with a default rate expected for 2026 around 2% (1.5% in 2025), a level distant from those historically associated with systemic stress phenomena. The new balance – higher spreads and greater selectivity – would actually tend to reward the more structured managers, generating further return opportunities for those able to select the best operations. A further element highlighted by the bulletin concerns the dispersion of returns between managers: while in listed bonds the difference between the best and worst managers would be relatively limited, in Private Credit this gap would widen significantly, with the top performer funds generating on average returns 12% higher than those in the lower range. A dynamic which, in a context of greater volatility and selectivity on deals, would be destined to amplify, making the choice of the manager a key variable for investors.
Private Infrastructure
The Private Infrastructure segment recorded inflows of $26 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Despite a quarter below expectations, the cumulative figure for the last 12 months exceeded 200 billion dollars, a peak that had not been recorded since the beginning of 2023. The slowdown in the single quarter could be read as a technical pause rather than a sign of cooling: several large infrastructure funds would still be in the process of closing their collection cycle, while the demand for private financing to support the development of data centers and energy plants would remain at historic highs, with a long-term trajectory that would continue to be of growth.
On the deployment front, the value invested in Private Infrastructure in the first quarter of 2026 was 100 billion dollars, while the cumulative figure for the last 12 months exceeded 400 billion dollars, a level that had not been reached since the third quarter of 2023. At the basis of this push there would be two macro-trends considered difficult to reversible: the energy transition, with the multiplication of projects in renewables, storage systems and distribution networks, and the digital transition, with the construction of data centers to support the expansion of artificial intelligence. Both trends would require long-term capital and tolerance towards reduced liquidity profiles, characteristics that would make Private Infrastructure funds particularly suitable for this type of investment.
In terms of value generation, the Infra 300 Equity Index recorded growth of 1.07% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, while on a 12-month basis the synthetic performance index of the segment recorded an increase of more than 7%. The current high rate environment would introduce technical pressure on infrastructure valuations, as higher rates increase the discount rate applied to future cash flows – a key component for projects that generate recurring revenue, such as the sale of energy produced by a wind farm. Despite this dynamic, the segment’s performance would continue to grow, supported by structurally sound demand for critical production inputs such as electricity and data storage capacity.
