The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds rebounded, suddenly increasing by nine basis points after yesterday’s collapse. The differential stood at 78, with BTP yields growing to 3.67%, while those of Bunds remained stable. The spread had not reached these levels for more than a month.
Government bond markets are struggling to return to pre-war stability in the Middle East, when all major European bonds were steadily closing in on Bunds in yields. International instability does not allow stable medium-term forecasts.
Because the spread suddenly increased
The increase in the spread is determined exclusively by a growth in the yields of Italian government bonds. Yesterday, the 10-year benchmark BTPs had recorded very low yields, even below 3.57% during the morning, significantly reducing the distance from the Bunds, the German securities, which instead remained stuck at just under 2.90%.
In the first minutes of the opening on July 1st this trend reversed. Yields started to rise again, gaining more than a tenth of a percentage point from the previous day’s low points. At the same time, interest on Bunds remained unchanged, favoring a widening of the spread to 78 basis points.
The spread is also growing in France, with Spain being the exception
France has also followed the same trajectory as Italy. After a rapprochement yesterday between Oat and Bund, the spread between the two securities returned to 68 basis points thanks to an increase in French yields.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 2.89% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.67% | 78 |
| French Oats | 3.57% | 68 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.28% | 39 |
Spain, however, is an exception. The Bonos managed to get the spread back under 40 points, with a yield of 3.28%. A performance favored by the extraordinary economic data that was recently published by the government. GDP growth in 2026 is expected at 2.6%, more than 5 times that of Italy, much higher than the Eurozone average and capable of rivaling the United States. Unemployment, one of the few figures that Spain had not yet managed to improve, would also be significantly decreasing.
The next auctions of government bonds: how to invest in Italy
The month of June just ended was particularly full of opportunities to invest in Italian public debt. In addition to the traditional auctions, there was also the issue of Btp Italia Sì. The result was a collection of tens of billions of euros for the State and various opportunities for savers to purchase securities.
Traditional auctions will resume in July, starting from the second week of the month. The dates to mark on the calendar are:
- July 9th Bot auction;
- 10 July auction of medium and long-term bonds;
- 28 July auction of Short Term BTPs and BTP€i;
- July 29th Bot auction;
- July 30 auction of medium and long-term bonds.
