Upon returning from holidays, a new autumn shock hits the pockets of Italians. According to Codacons estimates, in the September-November 2026 quarter an average family could spend up to 633 euros more than in the same period last year. The analysis highlights transversal price increases, from energy to fuel, up to food spending and the return to school, in a context marked by international geopolitical tensions.
Energy, electricity and gas bills rising sharply
The item destined to carry the greatest weight, both directly and indirectly, is that of energy. The price of electricity monitored by Codacons went from the average of €112/MWh in the September-November 2025 quarter to the current €180/MWh, with a jump of +60.7%. For gas the increase is even more marked: the PSV index rose from 0.358 €/Smc in autumn 2025 to approximately 0.750 €/Smc in August 2026, recording an increase of +109%.
Codacons estimates:
If energy prices remain at current levels, an average family’s expenditure on electricity and gas bills could rise by a total of 205 euros between September and November.
Fuel, up to 145 euros more for those with two cars
Fuel will also weigh on family budgets. Assuming that retail prices remain at current levels, Codacons estimates a higher cost for refueling of +145 euros in the quarter for a diesel car (two tanks per month) and +93 euros for a petrol car, again compared to autumn 2025.
According to data from Tuesday 1 September, petrol has broken through the 2.1 euro threshold on the motorway; a record since the beginning of the historical series of average daily prices communicated by Mimit, which began on 1 August 2023.
Food, chain price increases
According to Codacons projections, a 3% increase in food and drink prices in the September-November period would translate into around 70 euros more per family just for food spending. For transport, Codacons estimates increased spending of 68 euros per family in the next quarter.
Even eating out doesn’t spare the price increases. Bars, restaurants, pizzerias and food delivery services will see an average increase of around 20 euros per family, in line with the latest ISTAT data which confirm a growth in prices in the catering sector.
Return to school, up to 1,300 euros per student
For families with school-age children, the bill becomes even longer as schools reopen. Codacons estimates that the cost of equipment and books could reach 1,300 euros per student. At the moment there are increases of +1.8% for textbooks and between +2% and +4% for school materials, equal to an increase of approximately 32 euros per family compared to the previous year.
How much family expenses increase
In summary, all increases are as follows:
- electricity and gas +205 euros;
- diesel +145 euros;
- petrol +93 euros;
- food +70 euros;
- school +32 euros;
- transport +68 euros;
- catering +20 euros.
Making a sum, Codacons arrives at a total bill for the autumn rush of 633 euros for a family with two cars (one petrol and one diesel) and a school-age child. The association underlines how on this data:
the effect of the war in Iran weighs like a rock and will obviously be affected positively or negatively by the evolution of the international situation in the coming weeks.
