Does buying a plane ticket on a Tuesday really save money? It’s one of the most repeated pieces of advice when it comes to flights, along with the idea that there is an almost “magical” moment of the week when fares drop. However, the new data published by Google Flights tells a different story. The day you make the purchase seems to matter much less than other factors, such as how far in advance you book or the date you choose to leave.
Google analyzed five years of aggregated data from the service to identify some recurring patterns. However, there is an important clarification. The numbers released concern flights departing from the United States, so they should not be read as a rule valid for any airport or route. Rather, they serve to understand the trends that emerge from the analysis and, above all, to distinguish the “tricks” that seem to have real weight from those that have much less.
Is there really a best day to book a flight?
Google’s results put the Tuesday myth to rest. Wednesday was the least expensive day to buy on average. The advantage, however, is minimal. Compared to Sunday, which was the most expensive, the average difference was just 1.4%.
In other words, waiting for a specific moment of the week in the hope of finding a much lower rate risks being of little use. On a $500 bill, for example, that gap is about $7.
This doesn’t mean that rates are staying put. Conversely, flight prices can change over time based on demand, availability and numerous other factors. It is the principle of dynamic pricingalso used in other industries, such as concert ticket sales. The point, however, is another. There is no single day that can guarantee significant savings on its own.
For this reason it makes more sense to observe the evolution of prices on the route in question. When it has enough historical information, Google Flights can report whether the displayed cost is lower or higher than usual and show when similar itineraries have generally been cheaper in the past. However, these are indications based on previous years, not the certainty that a single tariff will follow the same trend.
How far in advance is it best to book?
Here the differences become decidedly more significant. For domestic connections in the United States, the lowest average prices were observed 39 days before departure. More useful than the single number, however, is the window reported by Google, between 22 and 57 days in advance.
For international flights from the USA the minimum arrived much earlier, 89 days after departure. Even in this case, the data should not be transformed into an appointment on the calendar. Google identifies a favorable range between 50 and 133 days in advance and specifies that, within this interval, the average variation is not very significant. For a trip abroad, therefore, waiting until the last moment in the hope of a sharp decline is not a particularly advantageous strategy.
What emerges for connections from the United States to Europe is also interesting. The lowest average price was recorded approximately 90 days earlier. The convenient range starts from at least 49 days and includes bookings made further in advance. For Mexico and the Caribbean, however, the most favorable point was set at 43 days, with a range between 24 and 69 days.
The season also changes the picture. In the US data, the trough for summer holidays in July and August appeared around 21 days after departure, while for Christmas travel it was observed 56 days earlier. They are very different values from each other and this very variability shows why it is difficult to reduce everything to a single rule.
Overall, the analysis shows above all that the advance can have a much greater weight than the day chosen to purchase, but also that there is no identical timing for all trips. Route, time of year and type of flight can significantly shift the moment in which fares tend to be cheapest.
On which days is it best to fly to spend less?
The choice of travel days may be more incisive. According to Google, leaving on a Monday and returning on a Tuesday or Wednesday cost on average about 14% less than weekend flights. For US domestic flights the gap can be as much as 20% compared to a Sunday return itinerary.
The comparison conveys the proportions well. The possible advantage linked to the dates chosen is well above the 1.4% observed between the best and worst day to make the purchase. If you have some flexibility, moving your departure or return can therefore count for more than waiting for the supposedly perfect time to book.
To find the cheapest dates, just enter the departure and destination airports and the travel period on the Google Flights site, then consult the Date grid and Price chart sections, which allow you to compare fares by changing the outward and return days. If you don’t want to book right away, you can activate Monitor prices to receive email alerts on cost changes, also selecting the Any date option if you don’t yet have a specific period in mind.
Another element that can affect spending is the type of itinerary. According to Google, direct flights cost about 20% more on average than connections with at least one connection. Of course, price is not the only criterion to evaluate. A stopover can mean more travel hours, greater inconvenience and additional risk in case of delays. However, the data shows how much accepting a less convenient option can make a difference on spending.
There is therefore no formula to always buy at the minimum. Google results describe historical averages relating to departures from the United States and do not allow predicting the performance of a specific route. The old Tuesday advice, however, seems much less important than is often thought. Flexibility in dates, advance notice and choice of an itinerary with a stopover are associated with much more significant differences compared to the day of the week chosen to complete the booking.
