With the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the start of an aggressive duties policy, the global share markets are preparing to face one New phase of uncertainty. The commercial policies marked by protectionism, already protagonists of the previous administration, have returned to the center of the scene and could significantly affect some sectors.
According to an analysis of the team policy of Morgan Stanley Wealth Managementthe new US duties, in particular those aimed at China, Mexico and Canada, are already having tangible effects. Investors begin to recalibrate their strategies, in the light of an increasingly polarized context, where the titles linked to exports And global chains they are under pressure.
Let’s see which sectors and actions are most exposed and which, on the other hand, could represent defensive shelters at this phase of realignment of international commercial dynamics.
Materials and energy are the most vulnerable sectors
The companies with a strong Exposure to foreign markets They are the first to resent the new wave of duties. According to the Tariff Risk Index by Morgan Stanley, i Titles related to exports Towards China, they recorded a 22% drop compared to the beginning of the year and those to Mexico by 10%.
The companies of the sector of materials (such as steel and aluminum) and ofenergy. In these sectors, the share of revenues generated abroad can exceed 50%, making companies vulnerable to repercussions direct (increase in import costs) e indirect (retaliation by affected countries).
Already in 2018, for example, the duties on solar panels and washing machines led to a collapse of over 11% of the sectoral indices in the following 6 months. Today a déjà-vu seems to take shape.
Among the most risk titles include well -known names in the semiconductor sector, big tech with strongly globalized supply chain, and producers of commodity industrialists whose competitiveness is linked to a double wire for supply costs.
Defensive in the foreground: Health, Utility and Software
In the event that the tariff strategy consolidates in a structural and lasting way, investors could move towards defensive titlesless sensitive to commercial wars. Among the sectors on which to invest with the duties are the sectors Healthcare And utilityhistorically more resilient in periods of instability.
Also i services – in particular software, safety informatics and technology applied to the defense – They could come out relatively indemnity because they are less linked to physical production. They therefore have less exposure to commercial flows and benefit from favorable structural trends, such as the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and the increase in digital security expenditure.
Cyclists under observation, escalation or compromise?
Cyclical sectors – such as consumer goods discretionary and industrial – they are instead more at risk. The increase in import costs and the braking of global exchanges could reduce margins and demand. In particular, brands with strong exposure to low -income consumers could suffer more than others, in a context of inflation from duties.
This does not mean that all cyclical companies (i.e. those whose trend depends a lot on the economic cycle, such as those of the car, fashion, tourism, etc. sectors) will necessarily suffer due to the duties or difficulties related to global trade.
The protectionist logic and the reference to “national security” seem to guide the current tariff approach. It is likely that there is a further intensification of the duties towards China and other countries perceived as strategic competitors. On the contrary, towards partners such as Canada and Mexico, with which the United States have integrated value chains, temporary concessions and agreements could prevail.
For investors, the context requires a Active portfolio managementattentive to the sectoral and geographical selection. The rotation towards defensive securities, preference for business -oriented business and an evaluation of individual companies with respect to their exposure to global flows will become central elements to face the next few months.
