The global sector of payments, after a race driven by innovation, is entering a phase of maturity. Global revenues reached $ 1,900 billion in 2024, thanks to an average annual growth of 8.8% from 2019. In the next five years, however, the rhythm will stabilize on a more moderate +4% per year until 2029.
To trace the picture is the 23rd Global Payments Report of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), entitled “The Future Is (Anyhing But) Stable”.
World growth
BCG’s analysis, which observes the dynamics of over 60 economies, indicates that growth will not be uniform:
- Latin America will lead the ranking with an annual rate expected of 7.9%;
- follow the Middle East and Africa with 6.8%;
- Europe and North America will grow at similar rhythms (3.5% and 3.4% respectively);
- Asia-Pacific will settle on 3.3%.
It is not a simple braking, but a structural evolution. New forces – from agentics to digital currencies, to real -time payments – are opening the way for innovative business models.
The Italian market
The Italian payments market is in strong movement, driven by e-commerce and digital solutions. Retail transactions have gone from 6 to 11 billion between 2019 and 2024, and it is expected that they will reach 20 billion by 2029. The credit card remains the dominant tool, even if the digital wallets and instant payments earn ground: in 2029 it is estimated, however, 89% of retail transactions will cover.
Despite the explosive growth of digital portfolios and instant payments, Italy still remains behind on the latter front with respect to countries such as those of Eastern Europe or Nordics.
Ugo Cotroneo, Managing Director and Senior Partner of BCG, says:
In Italy, the number of retail transactions will grow in the next five years with a CAGR of 12.9%: a signal of a dynamic market that accelerates on cards and digital wallets, but remains behind instant payments compared to other European countries. In this scenario, and even more with the entry into force of the European legislation on the obligation of verification of Payee (Vop), it becomes essential to strengthen compliance, risk management and cybersecurity transforming innovation and levers rules to create value and competitiveness.
The instant transfers and Fintech will change the scenario
According to the report, the future of payments will be shaped by several quick -growing technological forces.
First of all, the Ai Agentica, which is preparing to revolutionize digital purchases: in the United States, 81% of consumers plan to use it for online shopping, generating an estimated turnover of over $ 1,000 billion, equal to about half of the total e-commerce.
At the same time, digital currencies such as Stablecoin have already reached monumental volumes (26,000 billion dollars), although only 1% of these transactions is linked to real payments, while the rest mainly supports cryptocurrency trading.
Another engine of change is the rise of specialized Fintech, whose turnover touched 176 billion dollars in 2024 with an annual growth of 23%; These dynamic players, which today generate 45% of the revenues in the Fintech sector, grow at a rhythm three times higher than traditional operators.
Finally, instant payments record a global surge, with 40% increased volumes in 2024 which now represent about a quarter of detail digital payments; In economies such as India and Brazil the 50%threshold has already been exceeded, and the Middle East and Africa is expected to reach the same goal by 2030.
