The world is going through an acceleration of the rearmament globalfueled by collective fears and geopolitical strategies that have not been seen for decades. Just yesterday NATO, which met in these days in L’Aja, has signed an agreement that engages i 32 members of the alliance to raise military spending until 5% of the GDP by 2035.
A passage that marks a clear tear compared to 2% set in 2014 And which will bring deep consequences on economies and European social cohesion. Proposed by the United States, this plan comes while the Middle East is on the edge of an escalation, persists instability in Ukraine and the European continent is called to choose between armed deterrence and a different model of coexistence.
Italy, like other NATO countries, is now called to respond to a commitment that will change first of all priority Of budgetinternational relations and perhaps also a democratic identity of Europe to which we have never been used to.
Pressure from the USA for rearmament: Trump’s position
To guide the request for reorganization of financial efforts within this born summit is the US president Donald Trump, who has long been impatient towards what he considers one imbalance in the contributions between Washington and the other members of the alliance.
The new directives provide that each ally produces a report annual on the results achieved, with a first intermediate examination scheduled for 2029.
Trump took the occasion of the summit to take the agreement. In his words, it would be a personal success and a value conquest for the West.
At the press conference then, he spoke of Historical turning point And he remarked how, according to him, only an assertive leadership could have achieved such a result.
Then insisted on the fact that the funds must be used for thePurchase of war technologies of the latest generation, preferably US. Therefore it is clear that the rearmament of Europe for Trump, in addition to raising him problems, can become an industrial multiplier for American economic interests.
| Agreement born on 5% of the GDP | |
|---|---|
| 🎯 Objective NATO | Bring military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 |
| 🇮🇹 Current situation Italy | 1.57% of GDP in 2025 (about 35.3 billion euros) |
| 📈 EVENT INCREASE | +100 billion per year |
| 💶 Economic consequences | Healthcare cuts, school, welfare or tax increase |
| 🧾 Financial coverage | Military expenditure counted in the deficit No safeguard clauses |
| 🏠 Family impact | Over 2,600 euros per year of estimated contribution |
| 📊 Use of funds | 3.5% for pure defense, 1.5% for cybersiculia and critical infrastructures |
| 🇺🇸 pressure from the USA | Trump pushes for purchases of American war technologies |
| 🗳️ Political reactions | Favorable melons, critical oppositions |
| 🌍 Alternative | European model based on welfare, services and social justice |
How much does it cost to rearm to Italy: the consequences
Italy, which has just hit the target of 2% also thanks to an accounting recalculation that included items previously external to the defense budget, should almost triple the expense By 2035. According to estimates, it would be an increase of approximately 100 billion a yearfor a total of over 400 billion more in ten years compared to maintaining the current level.
According to an analysis of theMilex Observatoryspread immediately after the conclusion of the top of the AIA, Italy starts from a level of military spending in 2025 equal to 35.3 billion eurosor about 1.57% of GDP.
But to reach the new milestone of 5%, and in particular 3.5% intended for defense in the strict sense, it will be necessary to find between 6 and 7 billion additional Every year for a decade.
The rest, or 1.5%, will cover interventions in the field of safety in the broad sense:
- energy networks;
- Telecommunications;
- military mobility;
- critical structures;
- cybersicacy.
The total regime will exceed 100 billion per year. It is a figure higher than the entire allocation for thepublic education expected in 2024, equal to about 79 billion.
In Italy perhaps the taxes will increase
The NATO plan does not impose a unique methodology: each country can choose independently How to articulate the increases, but in the Italian case the executive excluded the activation of safeguard clauses.
This means that military expenses will continue to be fully accounted for in the deficit. And since Italy is bound to the limits imposed by EU stability pact and will not be able to further increase the debt, the only practicable alternatives will be new cuts or new taxes.
According to the Milex Observatory, Italy will have to mobilize almost 1,000 billion euros in the next decade to respect the agreement on 5%. A figure that imposes one radical redefinition of the public budget: Healthcare, school, welfare and internal investments will become secondary voices compared to military imperative.
And all this without obtaining any strategic guarantee, if not that of continuing to host American newspapers and infrastructures on its territory, making it actually a priority target in every hypothesis of high intensity comparison.
A decision that strengthens the production chains of the Italian war industry, while drastically reduces the Belpaese maneuver space in deciding how and where to allocate its public resources.
National disputes: what Spain does
The 2%threshold, established over a decade ago, was not reached by all members. At the end of 2024, only 22 out of 32 met that condition. Hence Trump’s bad moods.
Some governments are defining autonomous paths: the Spainfor example, announced the intention of stop at 2.1%. Madrid has signed the agreement like the others, but according to the government of Pedro Sanchez, the text would not have all in equal measure.
The US President immediately brandished the duties weapon:
What Spain does is terrible, refuses to pay for its share. We will make them pay the double on the duties.
Among the opponents there are also exponents of the French, Dutch and German left.
Names such as Yolanda Díaz, Jeremy Corbyn, Zoe Konci, however, and Manon Aubry took a position against the plan, supporting a European model founded on:
- social well -being;
- environmental justice;
- public services.
The social cost of the Restro to Resto
The agreement on 5% arrives in a phase of multiplication of the fronts: the truce between Israel and Iran is hanging by a thread, Ukraine resists Russian invasion and Beijing intensifies pressure on Taiwan. The increase in military expenditure appears as one choice politics.
The gaze, however, also goes to the factual, as well as the mere international urgency.
In Italy each family may have to contribute with beyond 2,600 euro per yearwith more taxes and less services. Italy has little margin: either it raises taxes or reduces welfare, or swells a public debt already over 137% of GDP.
Several European governments have already changed their budgetary strategies:
- London cut cooperation;
- Berlin climbed the bond on the deficit;
- Paris fishing in private savings.
Meloni defends rearmament as a historical necessity. On the contrary, Schlein asks not to be dragged into wars.
For ten years the world has always spent in arms, and 55% of the total is in the hands of NATO. Israel increased the 65%military budget, Iran cut it.
According to several analysts, deterrence no longer works. Mauro Ceruti and Francesco Bellusci speak of fossilized policy in schemes tribal.
A logic feeds an ancient paradox: increasing the arsenals to feel safer, ending up feeding the instability really serves? Bellic run -up resembles more and more to a prophecy that self -brought.
