The new financial week opens from Asia, where the markets do not offer a clear signal of a restart. The picture is cautious: Tokyo and Seoul are retreating, Chinese blue chips remain little moved and investors are moving with caution before the full return of Wall Street after the long American weekend for Independence Day.
Chips, AI and gearbox
The first test comes from the technology sector. Samsung is expected to prove its results, with the market focused on the demand for chips linked to artificial intelligence and the stability of semiconductor prices. The topic is relevant because the AI rally has supported an important part of global stock markets, but has also made the sector more exposed to profit-taking and revisions of expectations.
Alongside the chips, the exchange rate remains central. The yen continues to trade near multi-decade lows against the dollar, keeping the focus on a possible intervention by the Japanese authorities. For European investors the signal is clear: the week starts with less directional markets, but crossed by variables capable of impacting technology, currencies and risk appetite.
Oil drops after OPEC+, effect on energy and inflation
The second driver of the morning is oil. Brent drops after the OPEC+ decision to increase production targets from August, in a phase in which the market is also looking at the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of greater supply brings crude oil back close to four-month lows and reopens the debate between oversupply risk, global demand and geopolitical stabilization.
For Europe the movement has a double interpretation. On the one hand, weaker oil can ease inflation pressures by reducing transportation, manufacturing and logistics costs. It is an element that can make the picture less tense for the ECB, even if Frankfurt will continue to look above all at underlying inflation, wages and services.
On the other hand, the drop in crude oil prices requires a more selective reading of energy stocks. For Eni and Saipem the market will have to evaluate whether the decline in Brent is a temporary movement or the beginning of a more favorable phase for supply. Cheaper energy can help industrial companies and consumption, but it can reduce expectations on oil revenues and investments by large energy groups.
Wall Street reopens, Fed and US services lead the week
Wall Street’s operational return is the other key step at the start of the week. After closing on Friday for Independence Day, American markets reopen with attention focused on US service data and Federal Reserve minutes expected on Wednesday.
Last week’s weaker US jobs data reduced the risk of immediate tightening, but did not close the rate issue. The market wants to understand whether the Fed will read the slowdown as a sufficient signal to maintain a more prudent line or whether it will continue to prioritize controlling inflation.
In this context, services become the true thermometer of the US economy. If the sector remains solid, investors could read the slowdown in work as an adjustment phase. If, however, weaker signals also emerge from services, the topic will shift from monetary policy to growth, with effects on the dollar, Treasuries and global stock markets.
Cucinelli and Stellantis, two Italian dossiers between luxury and industry
In Italy the week already offers two relevant company dossiers: Brunello Cucinelli and Stellantis. Cucinelli is expected to receive the preliminary half-yearly financial statements and the presentation to the analysts, a useful step to gauge the tone of Italian luxury before the more intense start of the accounting season.
The market will look above all at international demand, the contribution of the United States and Asia, the ability to defend margins and indications for the second part of the year. Luxury remains one of the most observed sectors because it crosses global consumption, exchange rates, China, the United States and the ability of Italian brands to maintain pricing power even in a less linear growth phase.
Stellantis represents, however, the most sensitive industrial dossier. Italian production grew in the first half of the year, but remains far from 2023 levels and continues to coexist with production stops, the electricity transition, Mirafiori and weakness in European demand.
Istat, industrial production and Italian growth on the agenda
The domestic calendar will become more relevant in the second part of the week. On Friday, Istat will publish industrial production for May and the Note on the performance of the Italian economy referring to May and June. They are two important appointments because they arrive while the market is trying to understand whether Italian manufacturing is entering the financial season with signs of stability or with new fragilities.
The data on industrial production will be read together with the European picture, from German orders to Eurozone consumption.
The week therefore starts with a broader approach than a normal macro agenda. Asia, chips, yen and oil offer the first signal of global markets; Wall Street and Fed will set the tone for rates; Cucinelli and Stellantis will bring the focus to listed Italy; Istat will measure the stability of the real economy.
