The theme of pensions is one of the most discussed in Italy: the reforms continue to change and the retirement age rises constantly, the ever higher life expectancy and the aging of the population put the system in difficulty and in the future there will be less and less workers due to the low birth rate.
But, therefore, at what age they will retire of today’s young people? To understand it, it is necessary to understand how the Italian social security system works, which today is based on a distribution mechanism: this means that the social security contributions paid by the workers of now are not “set aside” and preserved for their future, but are used directly to finance current pensions.
Until 2026, Italians will be able to access the old -age pension at the age of 67 (with 20 years of contributions), but in the future this age criterion will certainly increase, given that it has been connected to the life expectancy of the Italian population (which in 2024 reached 83.4 years of average). According to some OECD estimates, by 2060 the retirement age could go up to 74 years.
How the pension system works in Italy
When we talk about pensions, reference is made to the social security system: in the arch of their working life, in fact, almost all workers are obliged to pay a social security contributions to an institution of the State (in Italy), i.e. the sums of money that is used to finance certain social benefits, including the pension.
In the case of employees, a part of these contributions is automatically detained by the paycheck (while the other is paid to the state by the employer). Self -employed workers, on the other hand, must deal independently of the contribution payment.
Since 1995, our social security system has gone from a remuneration regime (according to which the retirement amount was linked to the level of wages received by the person when he worked) to a contribution regime, in which the amount of the pension depends on the contributions paid by the worker during his working life.
The problem is that, today, the system works with a distribution mechanism: the contributions paid by today’s workers, therefore, are not actually “set aside” and reserved for them for the future, but are used directly to finance current pensions. In other words, there is no accumulation of reserves: this, of course, is creating more and more difficulties for the state budget, considering that in Italy life expectancy is increasingly high and, therefore, there are more and more retired than workers.
In general, the social security system represents one of the largest costs of the state public budget: in 2024 Italy spent 336 billion euros for pensions and, as of January 1, 2025, INPS recorded a total of 17.9 million pensions, of which 13.6 million of social security nature.
That’s why, over the past few years, the retirement age has been modified several times through numerous reforms, with the aim of making the entire system more sustainable for the state coffers.
The retirement age in 2025
But then, at what age will the young people of today retire? We can simplify the regulations in force in 2025 by distinguishing between:
- the old -age pension, which can be accessed from 67 years of age (both for men and women) with at least 20 years of contributions paid;
- The ordinary early retirement, which establishes a minimum period of contributions of 41 years and 10 months for women and 42 years and 10 months for men, regardless of their registry age.
The situation, however, could change already from next year: the minimum retirement age for old age (i.e. 67 years) was in fact connected to the life expectancy through the Fornero law (law 92/2012) and must be reconfirmed every two years. Consequently, the more life expectancy in Italy will increase (83.4 years in 2024 according to Istat data), the higher the age to be achieved in order to access the old -age pension.
Precisely for this reason, it is not possible to precisely establish at what age today’s young people will be able to access the pension: according to some OECD estimates, however, it is possible that by 2060 the retirement age reaches up to 74 years.
However, it must be specified that, at the moment, the Italian legislation also recognizes other methods to access early retirement, including flexible early retirement (the so -called 103 share, which corresponds to 62 years of age and 41 of contributions), the early contribution pension reserved for those who paid the first contribution from 1996 and other facilities for specific categories of workers.
The pension system in 2050: forecasts
Today the Italian social security system is strongly in crisis, for three main reasons:
- The slowed economic growth of Italy and low wages: less workers and lower wages also mean less contribution payments and, therefore, greater difficulties in maintaining sustainable the social security system.
- The aging of the population: the Italian population is increasingly old, with an average age of 48.4 years. Consequently, there will be more and more retired in the future, also considered the expectation of growing life.
- The demographic drop: in 2024 in Italy the birth rate dropped to 6.3 per thousand and according to estimates the trend will further worsen in the coming years. The new generations, therefore, will be less and less numerous and, once you enter the world of work, they will pay less and less contributions.
According to the latest predictions of the INAPP (National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies), at the moment the ratio between active workers (considered citizens in the 15-64 years) and pensioners (65+) is about 3 to 2, but by 2050 this report could reach 1 to 1. For each pensioner, therefore, there will be only a worker who will pay the contributions to the State.
Obviously, the solutions to the problem are not easy at all: trying to simplify, in addition to gradually increasing the retirement age, the alternatives for the state are to reduce the total amount of pensions (which would decrease the purchasing power of pensioners) or further raise the contributions for workers.
What happens in the rest of the world
Even in the rest of the western world, however, social security systems are entering into crisis. Just a few months ago, Denmark increased the retirement age at 70 years (the highest in Europe) starting from 2040, causing many protests by the population.
In France, however, in 2023 the government increased the retirement age from 62 to 64 years starting from 2030, following numerous attempts to reform and the opposition of French citizens. Other countries such as Greece, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium and Sweden are positioned approximately as Italy, with a retirement age ranging between 65 and 67 years. Slovenia, on the other hand, is positioned among countries where the age to access pensions is lower, with a total of 62 years and 40 years of contributions.
